FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Feb 17

Trump’s Trade Policy Appears to be Directed at Securing Critical Mineral Rights

by bcurry

After three years of war that forged a new unity within NATO, the Trump administration has made clear it is planning to focus its attention elsewhere: in Asia, Latin America, the Arctic and anywhere President Trump believes the U.S. can obtain critical mineral rights.  Moreover, this is why Trump to a large extent has his eye on annexing Canada and Greenland, both of which have an abundance of critical minerals such as uranium, graphite and lithium.  Critical minerals are currently used in over 230 sectors of the U.S. economy, from energy infrastructure to advanced technology manufacturing, and from aerospace engineering, including satellites, to medical equipment.  Critical minerals are the building blocks for the green and digital economy and demand for them will only grow throughout the global energy transition. Disruption potential is related to how much of a commodity’s global production is concentrated in countries that are relatively unwilling or unable (due to political or economic instability, workforce or infrastructure inadequacies, regulations, etc…) to supply the U.S. with critical minerals.  Some critical minerals are produced primarily in countries that are economically or politically unstable, or do not have a reliable trade relationship with the U.S. —  thereby representing a higher supply risk.  This however does not apply to Canada which is a stable supplier of minerals in general, including copper, zinc, phosphorus, silicon metal, cobalt, high-purity iron ore, and rare earth elements.

The lack of stability in Ukraine is a major reason why Trump apparently ha turned down Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s extraordinary offer that the U.S. be granted a 50 percent interest in all of Ukraine’s critical mineral resources as compensation for past and future support of the war with Russia. 

However, Canada recognizes that critical minerals are the foundation on which modern technology is built upon.  They’re used in a wide range of essential products, from mobile phones and solar panels to electric vehicle batteries and medical applications. By building critical minerals value chains, Canada can become a major global supplier of choice for critical minerals and the clean energy and technology sources they enable.  For this reason, Canada is not willing to simply give away control of these precious minerals to the U.S. or any other nation for that matter.  They are also essential to Canada’s economic or national security.

Canada has already partnered with the U.S. when it comes to discovering and mining critical minerals.  In January 2020, the Canada-U.S. Joint Action Plan on Critical Minerals was announced to advance bilateral interest in securing supply chains for the critical minerals needed in strategic manufacturing sectors.  Canada has also worked with other countries such as Japan to encourage cooperation on international standard-setting for critical minerals, as well as several multilateral organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the World Bank, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and the Intergovernmental Forum on Mining, Minerals, Metals and Sustainable Development (IGF).  The U.S. is also an active member of these multilateral organizations.

For these reasons, it is difficult to understand why Trump continues to be so aggressive when it comes to the U.S.-Canada trading relationship.  Canada is an exporting nation, which includes most of our natural resources which make up the bulk of exports.  Canada is very interested in exporting critical minerals to its allies through various trade agreements, and is investing more in the extraction of these minerals.  Canada already provides a stable and growing market when it comes to critical minerals.  If Trump wants to ignore the existing cooperation between the two countries, he does so at his own peril and that of those American businesses which rely on a steady and reliable supply chain.

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Feb 6

Canada Should Be Thanking President Trump For His Proclaimed Trade War!

by bcurry

There is no point in analyzing what Donald Trump’s executive orders are doing to shake up the government in Washington, particularly since there are more than enough American observers to undertake this analysis.  Instead, we in Canada can best focus on Trump’s continuing attacks on Canada’s sovereignty and its current trade relations with the U.S.  Trump’s proposed imposition of an across the board (except for oil and natural gas) 25% tariff on Canadian imports to the U.S. is seen as a blatant insult to the vast majority of Canadians.  After decades of free trade arrangements between both countries, such a tariff imposition would seriously alter the current relations both economically and politically.  The threat has created an outrage among Canadians that I have never seen in my lifetime.  In addition, there is little doubt that a trade war would economically hurt both Canadians and Americans alike.  It would certainly lead to greater inflationary pressures in both countries, something that the Trump Republicans had campaigned to control.

President and CEO of the Public Policy Forum, Inez Jabalpurwala, recently stated: “We must seize this moment to take decisive action to shape a stronger, more resilient and innovative energy-secure economy, as well as a united Canada.  It is incumbent upon us to stimulate economic growth, advance clean technology, expand our markets, remove internal trade barriers and get projects built.”  What we are seeing are campaigns across Canada to promote “Buy Canada” efforts by consumers whenever there are Canadian-made alternatives to imported American products.  In addition, the situation has convinced provincial premiers to seriously find ways to reduce or eliminate any inter-provincial trade barriers.  This has been something that the provinces have not really taking up earnestly until now.  By encouraging greater inter-provincial trade, Canadian business associations believe that it could result in billions of additional dollars for provincial economies.  Such an initiative, once implemented, would also lead to greater internal investment and the expansion and growth of Canadian companies throughout the country.  Even Canadian municipalities that purchase American products and contract with American companies for services are now examining local and Canadian alternatives. 

What the Trump administration has done is to galvanize Canadian governments, businesses and consumers to move to being less dependent on our southern neighbour for many products and services.  Past trading arrangements led to greater integration of and prosperity for both of our economies, especially in relation to the automotive industry, mining and the energy sectors.  Canada is a trading nation, particularly given its abundance of natural resources which make up the largest amount of its exports to the U.S. and other countries.  The current situation has again encouraged Canada to look more closely to further opening up its trade with other countries, including those in the European Union and Southeast Asia.  This move is rapidly gathering momentum and will no doubt increase regardless of Trump’s possible change of mind when it comes to the proposed tariffs.  The past trust of Canadians has been severely damaged, and a new reality of the predictable disintegration of our common markets has surfaced.

For this, we must thank Donald Trump!  His impertinent declarations that Canada should become the 51rst state have resulted in an expected backlash among Canadians.  It has unified the country as never witnessed before, even what happened during Quebec’s failed separation initiatives during the 1970s.  Canadians still view ordinary Americans as their friends and allies, but will not stand for Trump’s blatant “bullying” tactics as portrayed by numerous Canadian spokespersons.  Canadians, while normally seen as a polite people, are expressing their disappointment and anger with the U.S. administration and its supporters in multiple ways.  I suspect that they will continue to do so as long as Trump is in power and continues to attack our sovereignty.

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Jan 22

Once Again the Ugly American Raises His Head

by bcurry

In 1958, a political novel entitled “The Ugly American”, written by Eugene Burdick and William Lederer, depicted the failures of the U.S. diplomatic corps in Southeast Asia. The bestseller, which naturally I read at the time with great interest, has remained continuously in print and is one of the most influential American political novels.  Shortly after, in July 1959 the first U.S. soldiers were killed in South Vietnam when guerrillas raided their living quarters near Saigon.  After, a decades’ long war began, with many years of anti-war protests within the U.S. In April 1975, with the Fall of Saigon, U.S. Marine and Air Force helicopters transported more than 1,000 American civilians and nearly 7,000 South Vietnamese refugees from Saigon in an 18-hour mass evacuation effort.  Remember that the Vietnam conflict was never actually declared a “war” by Congress, but was instead begun through a presidential “executive statement”.  Congress simply controlled the purse strings for this tragic conflict which ended with thousands of American deaths and even many more injuries.  Sounds familiar?

Today, with the presidential inauguration of one Donald Trump, the ugly American has once again raised his head.  Only this time, he is turning his back on his allies and major trading partners: Canada, Mexico and more likely others.  Trump’s administration appears to want a trade war: a war which will hurt several economies, including that of the U.S., and consumers in both the U.S. and the affected countries.  The great self-declared “peace maker” has suggested that the U.S. will take back the Panama Canal, perhaps by military force.  He has hinted that he will acquire Greenland through the use of economic force against Denmark, a NATO ally.  He has also installed his billionaire friends in numerous key ambassador posts in Europe.  His so-called advisor Elon Musk has personally attacked the policies of several current European countries and has supported far-right populist movements.  This has created great consternation among European leaders, and rightly so.

Off-the-cuff comments by Trump suggesting that he could force Canada to become part of the U.S., primarily by economic force, has stirred up national sentiments among Canadians who view his position as being totally absurd.  If this is how one treats one’s friends, imagine how one will treat one’s enemies! 

Next, there’s the very apparent tone in Trump’s remarks that appear to suggest a return to American isolation when it comes to the international arena.  However we live in a world which is more global than ever before, where many of the today’s major issues instantaneously affect each country.  For example, one appears to have forgotten the fact that we lived through a global pandemic, wherein the World Health Organization played a major role in tracking and helping to contain the spread of COVID.  Now, Trump wants to remove the U.S. from the WHO.  We are also living in an era where climate change is real and extends well beyond our borders.  Again, Trump is withdrawing the U.S. from the 2015 Paris Accord on climate change.  President Biden had pledged to boost U.S. climate aid to poor nations to more than $11 billion a year.  This aid would help lesser developed countries cope with the environmental and economic consequences of climate change given that natural disasters are expected to escalate.  These moves towards American isolation appear to be just the beginning given Trump’s past threats against NATO and U.S. support for aid programs run by the United Nations.

The “America First” policies will mean that other countries, including U.S. allies, will have to cope with numerous destructive economic, military, social and political initiatives in the next four years.  One can only hope that the damage can be contained in an apparent world where countries are becoming increasingly driven by perceived domestic self interests.  Canada is but one country in particular that unfortunately is caught up in Trump’s stated move to so-called “Manifest Destiny”.  The notion of annexing Canada echoes the 19th-century belief in Manifest Destiny, a concept that symbolized America’s past ambition to expand its territory and influence.  However, I am certain that Canadians may have something to say about this ideology.

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Dec 28

What Does Next Year Have In Store For Canada-U.S. Relations?

by bcurry

Well, if the end of this year is any indication, 2025 is going to be a tough year for Canada-U.S. relations.  Even before he is sworn in as the next president, Donald Trump has alright stirred up a hornets nest with off the cuff statements aimed at Canada.  Firstly, he warns the Canadian government that he intends to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods if Canada does not reduce the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the U.S.  Such a move of course could be devastating for Canada, whose economy depends heavily on exports to the U.S.which is its largest trading partner.  However, Trump himself has suggested that the tariff plan may have less to do with border security than with his desire to eliminate the $50 billion trade deficit with Canada.  Interesting, given the fact that oil and gas exports from Canada account for most of that trade imbalance.  Without them, the U.S. generally has a trade surplus with Canada.  This would greatly impact the province of Alberta which supplies the U.S. with the bulk of crude oil and represents a safe, cheaper and more accessible source for Americans.  Therefore, the impact on the U.S. could mean higher costs for fuels.

Nevertheless, both federal and provincial governments in Canada hit the panic button.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was forced to meet with the provincial premiers to discuss how to positively react to Trump, especially as it pertains to the issue of border security.  By the way, the issue of border security has a lot more to do with the border between Mexico and the U.S. That southern border has been a far worst scenario when it comes to illegal border crossings and drug smuggling.  The subsequent immediate result was the dinner Trudeau had with Trump at Mar-a-Lago over the Thanksgiving weekend, as well as telephone conversations between members of Trudeau’s cabinet and Thomas D. Homan, Trump’s designated border czar.  Next, was a follow-up by two top Canadian ministers, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc.  They met on December 27th with members of Trump’s circle in Florida about a planned 1.3 billion Canadian dollars’ worth of a package of proposed new border security measures.

Whether the Canadian government’s preemptive moves will satisfy Trump is anyone’s guess?  I would suggest that it won’t and he will continue to pursue the matter as part of trade negotiations with Canada once he is in office.  Meanwhile, Trump is clearly aware that Trudeau’s minority government is now politically in trouble.  There is little doubt that the opposition parties intend to introduce a non-confidence vote possibly by the end of January after parliament re-adjourns after the holidays.  This would then result in an election being called early in the New Year, with a predicted majority win by the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre.  Whether Trudeau will lead the Liberal Party once more is still up in the air given his current unpopularity among the electorate.

This will place a lot of perceived difficulties for Poilievre’s Conservatives on this and other potential issues in the face of President Trump’s administration.  It may mean that the next Canadian government will spend a good deal of its time simply reacting and responding to Trump’s demands.  The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), signed in 2018 during Trump’s first term, is up for review in 2026.  Should a Trump administration take a hard-line stance requesting fewer restrictions on American exports to Canada, it could lead to a trade war with the U.S.  Such an outcome will no doubt further damage our relations, and would lead to higher product costs for consumers in both countries.  Due to our size, Canada has to be an export-import country in order to grow and thrive economically.

What makes the future that much more unclear are the irrational and uninformed outbursts of one Donald Trump.  How the next Canadian government will react to his social media musings will be very interesting?  For Canadians, there is little doubt that these will be trying times.  Stay tuned for more of the Donald Trump saga!

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Dec 18

Why I’m Proud to be Canadian and Not American

by bcurry

Whether in jest or being serious, Donald Trump’s ludicrous assertion that Canada should become the 51rst state is a blatant insult.  He suggested that there are many Canadians who would support the idea.  However, I’m not one!  Instead, I’m quite happy to remain as a Canadian, one whose family immigrated to this country after World War II and made a good life for themselves.  Here’s a few reasons why in a short excerpt.

First, I prefer our parliamentary system of governing over that under the Republic, especially as it pertains to that of electing a president through the antiquated electoral college process.  Even numerous American observers have promoted doing away with the electoral college and simply going with whoever wins the overall popular vote.

Secondly, the manner in which Supreme Court judges are appointed is far more politically influenced than in Canada.  As witnessed in recent years, the Supreme Court’s decisions have unfortunately caused a regression in modern American societal matters, including endorsing the right to bear arms and the overturning of Wade vs Roe.  The latter put a woman’s reproductive rights back a half century or more.  In addition, there is no age limit on the term of Supreme Court judges as is the case in Canada.

Thirdly, Canada, like most industrialized countries in the Western world, has a universal health care system.  Moreover, no one has to mortgage their home in order to pay for their medical expenses.  In the U.S., there is a much more obvious two tier system, one for the rich and the other for the rest of Americans.

Fourthly, Canada does have gun control measures in place.  The possession of guns is not seen as a right, but as a privilege which has strict requirements and does not include handguns except under tight restrictions.  As a result, shootings on a per capita basis involving homicides are very small compared to those in the U.S.  School shootings in Canada are almost unheard of, compared to the U.S. where the nation’s nearly 130,000 schools report gun incidents each year.  In 2020 for example, guns became the leading cause of death among American children under 18.

Fifthly, through its Truth and Reconciliation processes, Canada has formally recognized the injustices perpetrated upon its indigenous population in concrete terms.  In particular, we recognize those injustices involving the history of residential schools, moving to compensate those directly affected and beginning an extensive program of educating and informing Canadians about this terrible period.  Americans are just starting to recognize the tragedies of their indigenous peoples resulting from the use of residential schools as a form of assimilation and the destruction of their culture and languages.

Finally, although some Americans will refer to Canada as a so-called “socialist” state, Canadians have long prided themselves on their entrepreneurial skills and a healthy and thriving market-based economy.  As in the U.S., Canadian governments have long supported the business community and its research and development efforts, particularly as they pertain to new technologies.  Our labour force is as well educated and skilled as any in the world, attracting various forms of direct or indirect foreign investment.  Several thriving Canadian companies, including some of our major banks, are multinational in nature.  For example, over a million Canadians work and live in the U.S., most often because of their sought-after credentials, skills and experience in their respective fields.

Given our smaller size, Canada has to be an exporting nation.  Canada has free trade agreements, not only with the U.S., but also with the European Union, the Americas, and the Pacific Rim
nations in Asia.  Although Canada is considered to be a peaceful nation, Canadians proudly served and died alongside Americans in two World Wars, Korea and more recently Afghanistan.  Canadians are proud to stand up for our democracy and freedoms, much like Americans.  This is why I am more than proud to remain being Canadian.


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Nov 26

Trump’s Tariff Threats Against Canada and Mexico Will Hurt Americans Equally

by bcurry

Here we go again, Donald Trump’s bargaining concept is getting in the way of economic realities.  Threatening to impose a 25% tariff on all Canadian and Mexican products entering the U.S. is simply nonsense, and most likely in violation of the current U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.  This agreement, by-the-way signed during the former President’s first term, is up for re-negotiation in two years. 

The U.S. is the largest importer of goods in the world, with Mexico, China and Canada its top three suppliers.  Take for example the North American automotive sector which relies on integrative parts and components from both Canada and Mexico, whereby auto plants on both sides of the border and some production lines would most likely screech to a halt.  Not only can higher tariffs cause increased inflation, but they would also cause job losses in all three countries.  The tariffs, if implemented, could dramatically raise prices for consumers on everything from gas to automobiles to agricultural products.

For some reason, President-elect Trump believes that putting economic pressure on Mexico and Canada would force both countries to tighten up their borders against illegal migrants and the influx of drugs like the deadly synthetic opioid fentanyl.  Mexico’s efforts to fight drugs — which are manufactured by Mexican cartels using chemicals imported from China — have apparently weakened in the last year.  However, the new Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has argued that the flow of drugs is more of a problem of public health and drug consumption in American society, and rightly so.  On the other hand, both Mexico and Canada have an argument when it comes to the influx of weapons smuggled in from the United States, estimated to account for over 90% of arms smuggled into both countries.

Unfortunately, neither Mexico nor Canada like to be bullied into adherence to some needless policies by an American president, past or present.  President Sheinbaum has already declared that the introduction of new tariffs would result in retaliatory measures by Mexico.  The Canadian government is already examining the ramifications of increased tariffs, hoping to open up a further dialogue with the new American administration.  Hoping to avoid a trade war, both countries have indicated that they are willing to engage in talks on the issues at hand. 

What’s obviously a shot across the bow, Trump appears to think that these threats are an effective manoeuvre as part of some form of future negotiating tactics.  However, the resulting consequences will be dire for all parties concerned.  Canada in particular has clamped down on the flow of fentanyl both into and out of the country.  More aggressive attempts have also been made to deal with the influx of weapons from the U.S.  There is little doubt that these are security issues on both sides of the border.  Canada is also concerned about the potential influx of migrants from the U.S. as a result of Trump’s talks about a “massive deportation” program of illegal migrants during his second term.  Northern border security is just as important to Canadians as it is to Americans, and is nowhere close to American concerns over its southern border security.

I believe that the Canadian government will take a more cautious and respectful approach to Trump’s threat than the Mexican government which has warned the U.S. against any blatant attempts to subjugate its sovereignty through such threats.  As noted, Sheinbaum’s bristly response suggests that Trump faces a much different Mexican president than he did in his first term.  As for Canada, time will tell.  In addition, federally there will be an election next year and Trump’s administration will have to face a new Canadian government.  Unfortunately, the entire situation does not look good for the future of all three countries, both economically and politically.

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Nov 9

Environment Was Barely Mentioned By Presidential Candidates

by bcurry

Despite being the hottest issue on our planet at this time, issues concerning the environment were barely mentioned by either presidential candidate during the debate or while campaigning.  Indeed, what we heard was a continuous slogan about “drill baby drill” and the need to increase the output of the American oil and gas sector. 

It has just been announced that this was the hottest year on record.  Across the U.S. and Canada, one has had to deal with extreme weather events, including hurricanes off the gulf states, wild fires in California, New Jersey and Alberta, drought across all American states except Alaska and Kentucky, flooding across the North-eastern states, heat wave records this past summer, etc., etc.  This left Americans and Canadians with billions of dollars in damages, especially to communities and their infrastructures. 

Nearly 200 countries will gather next week for the U.N. climate summit, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan.  As usual, reaching a consensus for a deal among so many can be difficult.  29

China produces the most energy from climate-warming fossil fuels and also from renewable energy sources.  China retains the developing country designation in U.N. climate negotiations that began in the 1990s.  As such, it says the United States and other industrialised countries should move first and fastest with climate action.

The world’s second largest emitter and largest historic emitter, the United States, comes to COP
29 following an election that will put Donald Trump back in power in 2025.  Trump’s victory has reduced the chance of a strong deal on a new global finance target, or an agreement to increase the pool of countries that should contribute.  President-Elect Trump has promised to again pull out of the 2015 Paris Agreement and has labelled efforts to boost green energy a “scam”.

The most immediate concern will be over how the least developed countries will cope with the impact of recent severe weather patterns associated with climate change, including those in Africa, South and Central America and in Asia.  Moreover, this group’s 45 nations are also highly vulnerable to climate change but have contributed little to it. They are asking for significant funding from developed countries, preferably in the form of grants. They also want more money to flow into the loss and damage fund.  The question of how to deal with potential migrant movements from these countries will also have to be dealt with.

Both Canada and the U.S. are failing to meet their emissions reduction targets set out in 2015.  There is a real danger that both countries will return to supporting the fossil fuel sector in order to meet short-term economic goals.  President-Elect Trump has made it very clear that he wants to see more fracking across the U.S., and federal lands and protected areas will be more open to drilling.  He is particularly non-supportive of renewable energy initiatives and will cut back a number of federal programs and policies in support of that sector.  Canada, and Alberta in particular, will more than likely seek to encourage the U.S. to import more of our oil and gas with new pipeline construction, something denied by previous Democrat administrations.  Even Kamala Harris changed her position on limiting fracking in order to garner the support of states such as Pennsylvania.

All of these developments tend to lessen one’s optimism about finding ways to reduce greenhouse emissions, despite a lot of unsubstantiated rhetoric by industrialized countries.  When Americans were polled and asked which issues were the most important to them in the election, the environment and climate change was way down the list.  They obviously gave more import to the immediate state of the economy, jobs and immigration.  Once again, the issues surrounding climate change will have to take a back seat to such issues, despite growing concerns over its evident impact on our lands, agriculture and the oceans.

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Oct 21

2024 Predictions For Key Canadian Political And Economic Issues

by bcurry

Predicting the eventual outcome of political and economic matters in any year is pretty difficult, and 2024 has been just as unpredictable in various ways.  Relations with Canada’s biggest trade partner and political ally are about to change as a result of the U.S. elections next month.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has stated that a second Trump presidency would be difficult for the Canadian government, as there are many issues on which he and former president disagree.  However, who would have guessed earlier in the year that President Biden would be forced to drop out of the presidential race in favour of his Vice President, Kamala Harris.  Should the outcome result in a Harris administration, things could certainly be different and hopefully perhaps less antagonistic. 

What is most troubling for the Trudeau minority government is the current state of the economy, particularly as it relates to high inflation.  While inflation has come down from a year ago, Canadians are still faced with continuing high costs associated with housing, food and fuels.  In addition, his government has lost the previous mandated support of the New Democratic Party which assured him of being able to withstand any non-confidence motions in Parliament and the need to call an early election.  However, both the Liberals and NDP cannot afford to have an earlier election at this time, particularly since the opposition Conservatives continue to hold a twenty point lead in the polls.  The Conservatives, knowing that general public opinion is unfavourable to Trudeau, would be more than happy to have a federal election sooner than later due to their expectation to form the next government.  In addition, Trudeau has recently seen several Cabinet ministers resign and will not run in the next election, as well as a revolt in the Liberal caucus seeking to replace him as party leader.  Among Canadians in general, he now faces the lowest approval ratings ever.

While the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre could become Canada’s next Prime Minister, he isn’t personally liked by most Canadians.  Some have compared him to Donald Trump, but this is somewhat an over exaggeration.  However, he does represent an increase in the presence in Canada of right-wing politics, similar to what has divided Americans politically — nothing out of the ordinary here.  What was hard to predict was the rapid decline in support for Trudeau and the increasing massive support for the Conservatives, whose platform remains much as it was a year ago — alluding to the high cost of living, crime rates and the carbon tax. 

The province of Quebec has itself moved away from past strong support for the federal Liberals and more toward dealing with its own political and economic issues surrounding greater protection of the French language, its lagging fertility rate, immigration targets and financial support for asylum seekers, many from the U.S.   Quebec Premier François Legault’s aggressive francophone-first policy has been controversial in Quebec, where business owners say the new requirements will add more barriers to hiring.  The current and future position of Quebec voters is difficult to predict.

The rapid growth of ultra-conservative movements in Canada, similar to those in the U.S., has surprised many political experts.  There is no doubt that the economic difficulties experienced by lower-income Canadians has certainly contributed to this outcome, especially as it pertains to the influx of immigrants and their impact on housing costs and social services.  Critics predicted, and rightly so, that Canada doesn’t have the housing, public resources or resettlement services to absorb the projected half a million newcomers in such a short period of time.  The war in the Middle East has also exacerbated the growing level of hate-related incidents against ethnic groups in the country.

What makes predictions next year for Canada even harder will depend on the outcome of the U.S.
elections, and the eventual policy changes that the new American administration will introduce.  One thing is clear is the importance of a more vibrant economy to both countries, despite the fact that inflationary trends appear to be on the decline.  Both countries will shortly have new administrations in power for 2025.

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Sep 17

Québec Continues To Find Weird Ways to Spend Taxpayers Money

by bcurry

There is no way to justify how governments come up with strange means to spend taxpayers’ monies or have an impact on local economies such as Montreal in Québec.  The most absurd example is the province’s program to promote the French welcoming expression “Bonjour” instead of “Hi”, or a combination thereof, which is primarily aimed at the Montreal region.  Québec’s language minister, Jean-François Roberge, just launched yet another campaign to promote the use of French, and this time it’s going after a typical Montreal lingo that’s apparently a cause for concern for the “survival of French”.  The so-called new ‘Bonjour’ ad campaign will cost $2.5 million.  This follows the Québec government’s recent now-infamous announcement that tuition for out-of-province post-secondary Canadian students would nearly double from about $9,000 to $17,000 per year, starting in 2024.  In December, the province announced it will reduce the extent of the hikes to just $12,000, as long as the vast majority of out-of-province students also learn French before graduating.  Montreal’s two excellent English universities, McGill and Concordia, have since both reported a major drop in out-of-province Canadian students, especially from Ontario where annual tuitions are much less.  In addition, the presence of students in Montreal normally contributes significantly to the local economy, by way of rentals, restaurants and the provision of other their needs during the school year.

Spending money in the above manner does not make sense when one sees that, as of March 31, 2024, Québec’s net debt will stand at $221.1 billion, or 39.0% of GDP.  Furthermore, the Québec government has once again revised the increase in its deficit for the 2023-24 financial year to $7.5 billion, highlighting the stagnation in economic activity in the province.  The province’s so-called ‘Generations Fund’ is a fund dedicated exclusively to repaying Québec’s debt, with the government’s current plan to return to a balanced budget by 2029-30 “at the latest.”  As of March 31, 2023, the book value of the Generations Fund will stand at only $19.1 billion.  Somewhat unique to Québec, the Generations Fund is financed by revenue sources dedicated to debt repayment and consisting of, in particular, water-power royalties from Hydro-Québec and private producers of hydroelectricity.  Alberta has a similar fund based on royalties gathered from it oil and gas industry.

Like most provinces, governments have to look at financial support for priority areas of concern.  In Québec, portfolio expenses increased last year by 2.5 percent, notably for health and social services, family services and higher education.  The Québec government intends to review all provincial government spending to identify sources of savings.  Maybe they should start with the Office of the French Language, and silly expensive campaigns such as the “Bonjour” one?  Even local businesses in the Montreal area can’t figure this one out.  There always seems to be a problem with the government’s refusal to recognize that Montreal is a cosmopolitan city and is better off for it, especially when it comes to tourism and the promotion of its wonderful year round festivals.  Does welcoming someone by saying “bonjour Hi” or just “Hello or Hi” really threaten the survival of French in Québec?

Everyone should understand by now the importance of supporting the French language in Québec, which I certainly do.  However, the current government appears to like to push the panic button from time to time in order to outdo other parties such as the Parti Québecois. Just maybe they should instead consider the real priorities of Québecors at this time, including those related to the economy, the environment, inflation, the health sector and youth unemployment.

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Aug 31

Why Urban Politics At Times Appears To Be More Important Than Even National Politics

by bcurry

Think about it.  How many things that your local government looks after affect city dwellers on a daily basis?  Sometimes they may seem fairly mundane, but there is little doubt that they have a direct impact on us.  These include things that have to do with schools, public transit, roads, sewer and water systems, property taxes, urban waste disposal, policing and crime, medical facilities, first responders, etc., etc.  Often local issues far outweigh even those issues under review at the national level, which can seem to be very distant and not always of any direct import to us.

We tend to put more trust in our local leaders, who generally are members of our communities and are easier to contact than one’s national government representatives.  When something is a problem locally, municipal council representatives and urban administrators normally can be more easily accessed in order to file a complaint or raise an issue.  Moreover, this ready access implies that one can trust local officials to respond to our needs and thus are more trustworthy.

However, this level of trust has been somewhat damaged in recent years.  Much of this has to do with the rapid development that most urban centers are experiencing; be it with respect to housing, urban transit, infrastructure, green spaces, and other local developments.  As a result, there is a large amount of possible profits to be made by developers.  This is particularly true in California where a real estate boom drove political corruption, particularly in Los Angeles.  Jose Huizar, a member of City Council had gained control of the influential committee that approves multimillion-dollar commercial development projects across the city.  Reportedly, F.B.I. agents caught him accepting $1.8 million worth of casino chips, luxury hotel stays, prostitutes and a liquor box full of cash from Chinese developers.  As reported by the New York Times, he will become the third recent Los Angeles City Council member to go down as part of corruption investigations. This is part of a much larger circle of staff aides, fund-raisers, political consultants and real estate developers who have been charged in what federal authorities called an “extraordinary” recent wave of bribery and influence-peddling across California .  It is also reported that over the last 10 years, 576 public officials in California have been convicted on federal corruption and racketeering charges, including in San Francisco, South Gate, Bell, Lynwood and Vernon.

Why is it taking so long to uncover such corruption?  Part of the answer may lie in the fact that fewer smaller cities and towns have local reliable media sources such as newspapers and radio stations.  In larger centers, cutbacks in local reporting capabilities have led to a decline in investigative reporting.  In addition, you may have large immigrant populations, largely marginalized communities that do not have the resources to watch their politicians closely.  Increasingly, we have seen the need to have independent auditors to oversee the budgets and financial activities of municipal governments.  Their duties are similar to what one sees at the state, provincial and national levels.  In the U.S., unlike in Canada, municipal politics often involves political parties, Democrats or Republicans.  When a political party controls councils for a lengthy period and enjoys uncontested power, there’s appears to be no real penalty for stepping over ethical or legal lines.

Unfortunately, corruption is most often discovered through more indirect means or third-party observation, particularly when it comes to influence-peddling.  For the most part, representatives in municipal government tend to be trustworthy.  However, the evidence has shown that some developers and businesses are prone to offering certain incentives to local officials in order to influence their choices for major developments and services.  This is why it is so important to have independent oversight of matters related to urban policies, just as it is for those in higher levels of government.  Without it, one risks the possibility of inappropriate decisions being made that will affect all of us locally.  Given the number of critical services delivered locally, city governments do indeed have a good deal of responsibility and accountability.

Canada Urban Issues Urban Issues US

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