Global health leaders are urging caution as the holiday season gets underway, pointing to a 23% spike in coronavirus cases across the Americas in the past week, a surge that follows similar spikes in Europe. In the U.S., new daily reported cases have increased 8% in the past week, and deaths have grown 9%, according to tracking by the Washington Post. The U.S. is closing in on a total of 800,000 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. In Canada, compared with the previous two weeks, there was a 5% increase as of November 24th in new confirmed cases recorded over the past two weeks. Some states and provinces have higher numbers of COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths than others. Again, over ninety percent of those hospitalized are among the unvaccinated in both countries.
What one has to understand is that these horrific numbers have occurred even before the end of the festive season and the end of this year. No one can actually determine when Americans and Canadians will arrive at what is called “herd immunity”. Experts are now stating that we may need to reach over 90 percent in full vaccination rates to do so. This includes the vaccination of children aged five to eleven which has just begun in both countries and will not be completed until early in 2022. Even then, there is still a fair amount of vaccine hesitancy among certain groups, especially when it comes to vaccinating younger children.
The World Health Organization (WHO) is now assessing the emergence of a new COVID variant in South Africa and several other African countries. The concerns are such that the United Kingdom has banned flights from those countries, and it can be expected that other European Union (EU) countries and the U.S. and Canada will follow suit. Indeed, COVID outbreaks have occurred in most EU countries, leading some like Austria to re-introduce a full lockdown of the country.
Throughout Central and South America, the vaccination rates have remained low, especially in rural remote regions of each country. For example, as of November 25th, Mexico has a full vaccination rate for the coronavirus of about 49%, the majority of which is in and around Mexico City. The Washington Post notes that: “Containment measures in Latin America and the Caribbean have been uneven and largely lackadaisical as governments have had to grapple with financial devastation and poor health infrastructure, and have long wanted to jump-start the languishing economies.” Moreover, countries like Mexico are open for business, especially tourism, much of which comes from the U.S. and Canada.
The WHO is expressing concern about a “false sense of security” when it comes to the lifting of COVID prevention measures and the apparent increased complacency among people. Sorry folks, we are nowhere near being back to “normal”! Epidemiologists, health and other science experts agree that there will be a fourth wave in both Canada and the U.S. early next year. We can only hope that, with increased vaccination rates and control of any new variants, both countries can eventually arrive at a sense of normalcy sometime in 2022. Until then, we are not out of the woods when it comes to this global pandemic.