Well, if the end of this year is any indication, 2025 is going to be a tough year for Canada-U.S. relations. Even before he is sworn in as the next president, Donald Trump has alright stirred up a hornets nest with off the cuff statements aimed at Canada. Firstly, he warns the Canadian government that he intends to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods if Canada does not reduce the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the U.S. Such a move of course could be devastating for Canada, whose economy depends heavily on exports to the U.S.which is its largest trading partner. However, Trump himself has suggested that the tariff plan may have less to do with border security than with his desire to eliminate the $50 billion trade deficit with Canada. Interesting, given the fact that oil and gas exports from Canada account for most of that trade imbalance. Without them, the U.S. generally has a trade surplus with Canada. This would greatly impact the province of Alberta which supplies the U.S. with the bulk of crude oil and represents a safe, cheaper and more accessible source for Americans. Therefore, the impact on the U.S. could mean higher costs for fuels.
Nevertheless, both federal and provincial governments in Canada hit the panic button. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was forced to meet with the provincial premiers to discuss how to positively react to Trump, especially as it pertains to the issue of border security. By the way, the issue of border security has a lot more to do with the border between Mexico and the U.S. That southern border has been a far worst scenario when it comes to illegal border crossings and drug smuggling. The subsequent immediate result was the dinner Trudeau had with Trump at Mar-a-Lago over the Thanksgiving weekend, as well as telephone conversations between members of Trudeau’s cabinet and Thomas D. Homan, Trump’s designated border czar. Next, was a follow-up by two top Canadian ministers, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc. They met on December 27th with members of Trump’s circle in Florida about a planned 1.3 billion Canadian dollars’ worth of a package of proposed new border security measures.
Whether the Canadian government’s preemptive moves will satisfy Trump is anyone’s guess? I would suggest that it won’t and he will continue to pursue the matter as part of trade negotiations with Canada once he is in office. Meanwhile, Trump is clearly aware that Trudeau’s minority government is now politically in trouble. There is little doubt that the opposition parties intend to introduce a non-confidence vote possibly by the end of January after parliament re-adjourns after the holidays. This would then result in an election being called early in the New Year, with a predicted majority win by the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre. Whether Trudeau will lead the Liberal Party once more is still up in the air given his current unpopularity among the electorate.
This will place a lot of perceived difficulties for Poilievre’s Conservatives on this and other potential issues in the face of President Trump’s administration. It may mean that the next Canadian government will spend a good deal of its time simply reacting and responding to Trump’s demands. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), signed in 2018 during Trump’s first term, is up for review in 2026. Should a Trump administration take a hard-line stance requesting fewer restrictions on American exports to Canada, it could lead to a trade war with the U.S. Such an outcome will no doubt further damage our relations, and would lead to higher product costs for consumers in both countries. Due to our size, Canada has to be an export-import country in order to grow and thrive economically.
What makes the future that much more unclear are the irrational and uninformed outbursts of one Donald Trump. How the next Canadian government will react to his social media musings will be very interesting? For Canadians, there is little doubt that these will be trying times. Stay tuned for more of the Donald Trump saga!
FROLITICKS 
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