FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Dec 28

What Does Next Year Have In Store For Canada-U.S. Relations?

by bcurry

Well, if the end of this year is any indication, 2025 is going to be a tough year for Canada-U.S. relations.  Even before he is sworn in as the next president, Donald Trump has alright stirred up a hornets nest with off the cuff statements aimed at Canada.  Firstly, he warns the Canadian government that he intends to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods if Canada does not reduce the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the U.S.  Such a move of course could be devastating for Canada, whose economy depends heavily on exports to the U.S.which is its largest trading partner.  However, Trump himself has suggested that the tariff plan may have less to do with border security than with his desire to eliminate the $50 billion trade deficit with Canada.  Interesting, given the fact that oil and gas exports from Canada account for most of that trade imbalance.  Without them, the U.S. generally has a trade surplus with Canada.  This would greatly impact the province of Alberta which supplies the U.S. with the bulk of crude oil and represents a safe, cheaper and more accessible source for Americans.  Therefore, the impact on the U.S. could mean higher costs for fuels.

Nevertheless, both federal and provincial governments in Canada hit the panic button.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was forced to meet with the provincial premiers to discuss how to positively react to Trump, especially as it pertains to the issue of border security.  By the way, the issue of border security has a lot more to do with the border between Mexico and the U.S. That southern border has been a far worst scenario when it comes to illegal border crossings and drug smuggling.  The subsequent immediate result was the dinner Trudeau had with Trump at Mar-a-Lago over the Thanksgiving weekend, as well as telephone conversations between members of Trudeau’s cabinet and Thomas D. Homan, Trump’s designated border czar.  Next, was a follow-up by two top Canadian ministers, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc.  They met on December 27th with members of Trump’s circle in Florida about a planned 1.3 billion Canadian dollars’ worth of a package of proposed new border security measures.

Whether the Canadian government’s preemptive moves will satisfy Trump is anyone’s guess?  I would suggest that it won’t and he will continue to pursue the matter as part of trade negotiations with Canada once he is in office.  Meanwhile, Trump is clearly aware that Trudeau’s minority government is now politically in trouble.  There is little doubt that the opposition parties intend to introduce a non-confidence vote possibly by the end of January after parliament re-adjourns after the holidays.  This would then result in an election being called early in the New Year, with a predicted majority win by the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre.  Whether Trudeau will lead the Liberal Party once more is still up in the air given his current unpopularity among the electorate.

This will place a lot of perceived difficulties for Poilievre’s Conservatives on this and other potential issues in the face of President Trump’s administration.  It may mean that the next Canadian government will spend a good deal of its time simply reacting and responding to Trump’s demands.  The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), signed in 2018 during Trump’s first term, is up for review in 2026.  Should a Trump administration take a hard-line stance requesting fewer restrictions on American exports to Canada, it could lead to a trade war with the U.S.  Such an outcome will no doubt further damage our relations, and would lead to higher product costs for consumers in both countries.  Due to our size, Canada has to be an export-import country in order to grow and thrive economically.

What makes the future that much more unclear are the irrational and uninformed outbursts of one Donald Trump.  How the next Canadian government will react to his social media musings will be very interesting?  For Canadians, there is little doubt that these will be trying times.  Stay tuned for more of the Donald Trump saga!

Canada Donald Trump Economy Foreign Policy Trading Relationships U.S. Canada Border US

Leave a comment »
Dec 18

Why I’m Proud to be Canadian and Not American

by bcurry

Whether in jest or being serious, Donald Trump’s ludicrous assertion that Canada should become the 51rst state is a blatant insult.  He suggested that there are many Canadians who would support the idea.  However, I’m not one!  Instead, I’m quite happy to remain as a Canadian, one whose family immigrated to this country after World War II and made a good life for themselves.  Here’s a few reasons why in a short excerpt.

First, I prefer our parliamentary system of governing over that under the Republic, especially as it pertains to that of electing a president through the antiquated electoral college process.  Even numerous American observers have promoted doing away with the electoral college and simply going with whoever wins the overall popular vote.

Secondly, the manner in which Supreme Court judges are appointed is far more politically influenced than in Canada.  As witnessed in recent years, the Supreme Court’s decisions have unfortunately caused a regression in modern American societal matters, including endorsing the right to bear arms and the overturning of Wade vs Roe.  The latter put a woman’s reproductive rights back a half century or more.  In addition, there is no age limit on the term of Supreme Court judges as is the case in Canada.

Thirdly, Canada, like most industrialized countries in the Western world, has a universal health care system.  Moreover, no one has to mortgage their home in order to pay for their medical expenses.  In the U.S., there is a much more obvious two tier system, one for the rich and the other for the rest of Americans.

Fourthly, Canada does have gun control measures in place.  The possession of guns is not seen as a right, but as a privilege which has strict requirements and does not include handguns except under tight restrictions.  As a result, shootings on a per capita basis involving homicides are very small compared to those in the U.S.  School shootings in Canada are almost unheard of, compared to the U.S. where the nation’s nearly 130,000 schools report gun incidents each year.  In 2020 for example, guns became the leading cause of death among American children under 18.

Fifthly, through its Truth and Reconciliation processes, Canada has formally recognized the injustices perpetrated upon its indigenous population in concrete terms.  In particular, we recognize those injustices involving the history of residential schools, moving to compensate those directly affected and beginning an extensive program of educating and informing Canadians about this terrible period.  Americans are just starting to recognize the tragedies of their indigenous peoples resulting from the use of residential schools as a form of assimilation and the destruction of their culture and languages.

Finally, although some Americans will refer to Canada as a so-called “socialist” state, Canadians have long prided themselves on their entrepreneurial skills and a healthy and thriving market-based economy.  As in the U.S., Canadian governments have long supported the business community and its research and development efforts, particularly as they pertain to new technologies.  Our labour force is as well educated and skilled as any in the world, attracting various forms of direct or indirect foreign investment.  Several thriving Canadian companies, including some of our major banks, are multinational in nature.  For example, over a million Canadians work and live in the U.S., most often because of their sought-after credentials, skills and experience in their respective fields.

Given our smaller size, Canada has to be an exporting nation.  Canada has free trade agreements, not only with the U.S., but also with the European Union, the Americas, and the Pacific Rim
nations in Asia.  Although Canada is considered to be a peaceful nation, Canadians proudly served and died alongside Americans in two World Wars, Korea and more recently Afghanistan.  Canadians are proud to stand up for our democracy and freedoms, much like Americans.  This is why I am more than proud to remain being Canadian.


. 

Canada Foreign Policy Gun Control Trading Relationships US US Politics

Leave a comment »
Dec 16

Why is There an Increasing Political Attack on the Rights of Transgender Youth?

by bcurry

What is it that drives conservative politicians in the U.S. and Canada to increasingly introduce laws that affect the rights of transgender people, especially youth?  This appears to be part and parcel of a populist agenda.  In the U.S., Republican lawmakers have been introducing a number of bills targeting transgender rights particularly of children and within public schools. The rights of transgender people to participate in school sports, access gender-affirming healthcare and use the bathroom of their choice have come under attack.  In Canada, some conservative provincial governments such as Alberta and New Brunswick have introduced new requirements related to transgender students in schools.  Transgender or non-binary students under 16 must have parental consent to alter their names and pronouns at school and there is also a new requirement that gender-neutral washrooms be private, which have become issues in themselves.

What we must first point out is that the proportion of persons in the population who identify as being transgender is very very small.  Based on current U.S. population size, it is estimated by the PEW Research Centre that 0.6% of those ages 13 and older identify as transgender in the United States, roughly about 1.6 million individuals.  Among adults, 0.5% (over 1.3 million adults) identify as transgender.  Only one in five people who identify as transgender are ages 13-17.  In Canada in May 2021, Statistics Canada noted that only one in 300 people in Canada aged 15 and older identify as being transgender or non-binary.  This means that there were about 60,000 Canadians aged 15 and older living in a private household who were transgender (0.19%) and about 41,000 who were non-binary (0.14%).

However, the transgender issue itself has become a heated one in both countries, especially when it comes to children.  According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, transgender is an umbrella term for people whose gender identity or expression is different from their sex assigned at birth.  Early on, children may exhibit some traits and behaviour more conducive to the opposite sex.  There is a lot of misinformation out there about gender-affirming surgery or gender-affirming hormone use.  Firstly, such health matters are rarely if ever considered before a child reaches puberty.  Initially, parents, recognizing that a young child may exhibit preferences for behaving as a member of the opposite sex, will generally first seek out expert advice from a medical professional to deal what we can all agree would be a personal and private matter.  I would strongly suggest that persons interested in the role of parents at this early stage watch an excellent documentary entitled “Transhood” to better understand the difficult situation that parents face under these circumstances.  As homosexuality was a new social and health issue half a century ago, issues surrounding gender dysphoria have surfaced in similar ways.  Transgender persons face many of the same problems and opposition as homosexuals did, but of a very different kind.  As a result, parents often face a lack of support from their community, governments and even their immediate family, as portrayed in the above documentary over several years during the last decade. 

Children exhibiting transgender traits face numerous external factors such as pressure from family, non-affirming school environments, and increased vulnerability to violence, including assaults.  Transgender adolescents and adults are prone to having mental health issues and to committing suicide in numbers greater than the population at large.  According to a 2022 study by the Williams Institute, a UCLA Law School thinktank, a majority of those surveyed said they were under the age of 18 when they knew their gender was different from the one assigned at birth — some one-third 10 years old or younger.  Trans adults reported day-to-day harassment, including at work or with a healthcare provider.  As per a Washington Post and KFF 2023 study, about 25% of trans adults said they had faced physical assault due to their gender identity, gender expression or sexual orientation.  An estimated six out of 10 have faced verbal harassment.  However, the same study found that 78% of respondents said living as different gender from birth increased satisfaction in life.

The current tragedy of government intervention is overkill in what should be a matter best left to parents, the child and their medical practitioner.  People need to be better informed and educated about gender dysphoria, and which elements are important to consider as to a person’s and family’s mental health and physical health.  With better understanding and appreciation of this delicate issue, governments and communities can then better support their related needs for support, rather than further stigmatizing transgender individuals.

Transgender Issues

Leave a comment »
Dec 7

New Political and Social-Economic Realm of Diversity in America

by bcurry

Back in March of this year, the Biden administration ordered changes to a range of federal surveys to gather more detailed information about the nation’s ethnic and racial makeup.  Why is this important?  For example, most people of Middle Eastern and North African descent reportedly are currently classified as “white” in U.S. census data.  According to the Census Bureau estimates, this represented about 3.5 million people falling into that category.  They represent for example people whose descent is Lebanese, Egyptian, Iranian, Syrian, Iraqi, and Israeli.  Under the new format, people of Middle Eastern and North African descent will have their own category.  Officials of the Office of Management and Budget, which oversaw the review of the current survey questions, said the changes were needed in part to make surveys more accurate.

The reason more accurate surveys are increasingly important is that America is increasing becoming more diverse.  The non-white population has nearly doubled since 1990 to over 40% in 2023, as the proportion of non-Hispanic whites decreased from 75% to 58%.  According to the USAFacts Team, the nation’s non-white population has almost doubled over the past four decades, growing from about 24% of the population in 1990 to over 40% in 2023.  Furthermore, according to the US Census Bureau, the multiracial population is projected to be the fastest-growing racial or ethnic group over the next four decades, followed by the Asian or Pacific Islander and Hispanic populations.  The non-Hispanic white population is expected to continue shrinking.

The above announced changes most likely have the potential to rankle conservatives who believe that the nation’s focus on diversity has already gone too far.  Interestingly, both the Republicans and Democrats during the recent election attempted vigorously to cater to Blacks, Latinos and Hispanics to have their votes which were deemed critical in several states.  This time around, the Trump campaign notably targeted those communities with diverse populations.  In many cases, the non-White populace was just as concerned about the economy and immigration as many of his White supporters.  Something that the Democratic Party failed to fully realize during its campaign — a startling factor given Pamela Harris being a Black candidate.

Now one has to ask is whether Donald Trump will allocate more positions in his cabinet to better reflect the nation’s diversity?  So far, the answer appears to be a resounding “no”.  Specifically selecting people from such bodies as Fox News certainly doesn’t help.  He may have to go outside his comfort zone!  In addition, federal policies will have to better reflect the importance of diverse populations.  Those who broadly support the new survey questions — academics, civil liberties advocates and racial and ethnic interest groups among them — say they would help promote greater fairness in schools, housing, hiring and other aspects of society where census data is used.  I’m not so sure that Trump’s immediate advisory body, made up mainly of rich White men, is going to facilitate appropriately dealing with such issues.

Favouring one group over another will lead to even more division within the country.  Hopefully, the Republicans in Congress will appreciate this matter in their deliberations.  Many marginalized groups are made up of persons from diverse communities, and are affected particularly hard by any reduction in socio-economic benefit programs.  Such policies would no doubt lead to increased hardships for these people.  Cutting such programs in the name of “efficiency” should not be an option in these dire times, accentuated by growing poverty, homelessness and inadequate medical care.  One has to question what Trump means when he proposes to make America great again?  Just who will actually benefit?

Donald Trump Immigration Presidential Election 2024 Republican Party The American Dream US US Politics

Leave a comment »
Blog at WordPress.com.