Predicting the eventual outcome of political and economic matters in any year is pretty difficult, and 2024 has been just as unpredictable in various ways. Relations with Canada’s biggest trade partner and political ally are about to change as a result of the U.S. elections next month. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has stated that a second Trump presidency would be difficult for the Canadian government, as there are many issues on which he and former president disagree. However, who would have guessed earlier in the year that President Biden would be forced to drop out of the presidential race in favour of his Vice President, Kamala Harris. Should the outcome result in a Harris administration, things could certainly be different and hopefully perhaps less antagonistic.
What is most troubling for the Trudeau minority government is the current state of the economy, particularly as it relates to high inflation. While inflation has come down from a year ago, Canadians are still faced with continuing high costs associated with housing, food and fuels. In addition, his government has lost the previous mandated support of the New Democratic Party which assured him of being able to withstand any non-confidence motions in Parliament and the need to call an early election. However, both the Liberals and NDP cannot afford to have an earlier election at this time, particularly since the opposition Conservatives continue to hold a twenty point lead in the polls. The Conservatives, knowing that general public opinion is unfavourable to Trudeau, would be more than happy to have a federal election sooner than later due to their expectation to form the next government. In addition, Trudeau has recently seen several Cabinet ministers resign and will not run in the next election, as well as a revolt in the Liberal caucus seeking to replace him as party leader. Among Canadians in general, he now faces the lowest approval ratings ever.
While the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre could become Canada’s next Prime Minister, he isn’t personally liked by most Canadians. Some have compared him to Donald Trump, but this is somewhat an over exaggeration. However, he does represent an increase in the presence in Canada of right-wing politics, similar to what has divided Americans politically — nothing out of the ordinary here. What was hard to predict was the rapid decline in support for Trudeau and the increasing massive support for the Conservatives, whose platform remains much as it was a year ago — alluding to the high cost of living, crime rates and the carbon tax.
The province of Quebec has itself moved away from past strong support for the federal Liberals and more toward dealing with its own political and economic issues surrounding greater protection of the French language, its lagging fertility rate, immigration targets and financial support for asylum seekers, many from the U.S. Quebec Premier François Legault’s aggressive francophone-first policy has been controversial in Quebec, where business owners say the new requirements will add more barriers to hiring. The current and future position of Quebec voters is difficult to predict.
The rapid growth of ultra-conservative movements in Canada, similar to those in the U.S., has surprised many political experts. There is no doubt that the economic difficulties experienced by lower-income Canadians has certainly contributed to this outcome, especially as it pertains to the influx of immigrants and their impact on housing costs and social services. Critics predicted, and rightly so, that Canada doesn’t have the housing, public resources or resettlement services to absorb the projected half a million newcomers in such a short period of time. The war in the Middle East has also exacerbated the growing level of hate-related incidents against ethnic groups in the country.
What makes predictions next year for Canada even harder will depend on the outcome of the U.S.
elections, and the eventual policy changes that the new American administration will introduce. One thing is clear is the importance of a more vibrant economy to both countries, despite the fact that inflationary trends appear to be on the decline. Both countries will shortly have new administrations in power for 2025.
FROLITICKS 