FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Concerns Over Refugee Flows Into the U.S. Are Decades in the Making

The current issues surrounding the influx of refugees over the Mexican-U.S. border have been decades in the making.  It doesn’t matter whether it was a Democratic or Republican administration, American policies and initiatives have created the past and current issues surrounding refugees and so-called illegals, particularly from Central American countries.  Anyone who would like to examine an excellent historical accounting of these policies should read a 2024 book by Jonathan Blitzer entitled: “Everyone Who Is Gone Is Here (The United States, Central America, and The Making of a Crisis)”.  Mr. Blitzer is a well known staff writer at The New Yorker.  He describes not only past U.S. policies supporting autocrats and military regimes in countries such as El Salvador and Guatemala, but he also relates stories which put a face on several migrants.

He noted as follows: “From the 1980s to the early 2000s, the story of the southern border was about the United States and Mexico.  At the time, migrants entering the US tended to be single Mexican men looking for work.  But around 2014, a different population started to arrive on a scale Americans had never before seen.  These were children and families from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras — traveling north to seek asylum.  In just about every respect, the US was unprepared for this shift.”

Notably, each of the last three American presidents have had to deal with a major humanitarian emergency at the border, while also deepening involvement in two major civil wars in Central America, often in the name of fighting communism as alluded to by President Ronald Reagan back in the early 1980s.  While rebels in these countries were fighting for people against authoritarian regimes, social injustice and military atrocities, the U.S. was backing those same regimes through military aid and covert operations carried out by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).  Government led violence and massacres became common place, forcing many families and individuals to flee these countries.

Today, one can add Venezuela to the list as the most recent migrants are from that single country.  Many Venezuelans had expected to join large existing communities of their compatriots in places such as Florida and Texas.  How did the governors of some states react to this latest influx?  They simply began a program of busing or flying recent migrants to cities such as New York, Washington, Chicago and Philadelphia.  Interestingly, the destinations were cities run by Democrats who supported the Biden administration’s more open immigration policy. Soon, some neighbourhoods in those cities started looking like Texas border towns.

As reported recently by The New York Times, in two years Texas alone bused more than 119,000 people to Democrat-led cities, shifting both migration patterns and the debate over immigration.  The list of targeted cities apparently just keeps expanding.  As noted, Texas governor Greg Abbott took what otherwise might have been the slow diffusion of migrants from the border to cities and towns across the U.S., and directed it at just a few places.  The White House called it a “political stunt.”  Such expensive state policies of course do nothing to address the real issues as to why people are fleeing these countries in the first place.  The U.S. has to better address the realities of violence, poverty, cartels and the drug trade, and the inability of Mexico itself to deal with the migrant problem, both economically and politically.  The detrimental impact of climate change will only add to the nature of agricultural and industrial decline in that part of the Third World.

What is most disconcerting is that under former President Trump, parents and their children were deliberately split up.  Unfortunately, hundreds of parents who eventually were deported did not even know what had happened to their children in the U.S.  Such separation was inexcusable and inhumane.  Let’s hope that another potential Trump presidency would not introduce such a policy in the name of creating some kind of uncertain deterrence factor. 

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Inordinate Influence of Super PACs in Upcoming U.S. Elections

In my blog back in December 2023, I briefly touched on political action committees (PAC).  Differences in Governance Systems in Canada and the U.S. Do Matter | FROLITICKS  In the United States, a PAC is a tax-exempt organization that pools campaign contributions from members and donates those funds to campaigns for or against candidates.  I also noted at that time that there is no end to the hundreds of millions of dollars that candidates can gather from such sources as PACs and Super PACs.  The term Super PAC has seen occasional use since the 1980s, but now has a well established specific meaning and widespread use derived from federal court decisions made in 2010, including the U.S. Supreme Court.

Now it has been reported that a new group, America PAC, is being funded by several wealthy tech entrepreneurs in Mr. Musk’s social circle and is said to likely draw financial support from the SpaceX and Tesla founder himself.  Apparently, some of Elon Musk’s closest friends have helped start the new Super PAC aimed at helping former President Donald J. Trump in the 2024 presidential race.  In the spring, the New York Times reported that one leader of America PAC had told a friend that the group expected to have a major donor who would make donations in four batches, adding up to as much as $160 million over the course of the Trump’s campaign.

I noted in the above blog that one major difference between Canada and the U.S. is how candidates in the election process are funded.  In the U.S. there is no end to the hundreds of millions of dollars that candidates can gather from such sources as Super PACs.  On the other hand, in Canada contributions to candidates are far less and are regulated by stricter controls enforced by an independent agency, namely Elections Canada. 

Candidates in both dominant American parties have no choice but to depend on PACs to fund their campaigns.  This includes whenever both parties have contested primaries.  Candidates are now forced to compete for the allegiance of a small group of wealthy donors who can write six- and seven-figure checks.  One has to question how much such increasing dependence will influence their positions on policies once elected?  It is also well known that contributions from PACs can also play a major role in influencing sitting members when it comes to ballot initiatives and legislation.  It’s also recognized that many elected politicians have to begin raising campaign funds during their last year in office, often turning again to the previous campaign contributors. 

There are numerous issues before Congress concerning the high tech industry, most notably as to the dominance of several major industry players such as Elon Musk with his evident tilt to the right, especially in commentary on his social media site X.  We know that companies such as Amazon, Google and Meta are facing investigations under the competition rules, while TikTok and X are facing probes intended to force internet companies to more aggressively police their platforms for illicit content.  In addition, both Canada and the U.S. are closely watching the impact of a recent new European Union law meant to encourage competition in the tech industry.  In addition, there are the issues surrounding the use of artificial intelligence (A.I.) within the high tech industry and possible future government legislation.

PACs exist for many other industries/sectors (as reported by the OpenSecrets.org website) and include such big contributors in agribusiness, tobacco, forestry and forest products, communications/electronics, telecom services, construction services, entertainment, defence and defence aerospace, commercial banks, real estate, insurance, health services, and pharmaceutical manufacturing to name but a few.  Obviously, such lobbyists reflect a number of current and important sectors when it comes to government policy reviews and initiatives.  OpenSecrets.org estimated that in the 2018 election the top ten PACs donated a total of over $29 Million (directly, and via their affiliates and subsidiaries) to federal candidates.

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More Than Just the Temperature, Politics Is Getting Very Hot South of the Canadian Border

Canadians are becoming very concerned about what is happening with respect to the upcoming American elections.  Many of us, myself included, closely watched the televised debate between President Biden and former President Trump.  Clearly this was a defining moment for both presidential candidates, and especially for 81 year old Joe Biden.  Almost immediately, one could see that something was not quite right with Biden.  Frankly, it was hard to watch and one could only feel a sense of sorrow and dread for his haltering performance.  Sorry, something is not quite right in the Whitehouse.  All kinds of excuses and denials began to emerge from his immediate family, his Vice-President and several key Democrats.  Now, the pressure is apparently on from several top Democrats to reassess Biden’s continuation of his campaign and leadership.  However, the President insists that he will continue to run and that he is capable of performing the duties of the most important leader of the Western world.

So where does that leave us?  The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner and closest ally without doubt.  The prospect of another presidency under Donald Trump has major implications for our relationship, especially in the domestic and international settings.  Given Trump’s campaign promises, nothing that would result has much benefit when looking at future U.S.-Canada relations.  No, this is not an exaggeration!  Right now, the Canadian government is closely examining each and every statement released by Trump.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is seriously lagging in Canadian polls, may even use the possibility of a future Trump administration to suggest that he is most qualified to confront Trump on matters of trade and defence.  Remember that Canada had to fight tooth and nail to get the Americans to agree to Canada’s new trade agreement with the U.S. and Mexico — the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or USMCA — back in 2018.  There are some experts who claim that Canada lost out in agreeing to the USMCA, especially with respect to each country’s monetary and exchange rate policies and their trade in autos.  One has to wonder if Trump will push to reopen the USMCA to the detriment of the Canadian economy?  More tariffs anyone!

Between now and the November elections, a lot of things can happen.  However, time is running out for the Democrats.  Like a significant number of American voters, most Canadians believe that President Biden should step aside.  Given his latest public appearances and debate performance, there is a lot of concern about the President’s cognitive capabilities.  Donald Trump and the Republicans will continue to harp on the President’s general health, using it to increase their polling results.  Most observers believe that President Biden’s chances of winning the election are increasingly slim.  More importantly, what will the situation mean for the Democrats in congressional and state gubernatorial elections?  All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate will be contested.  Trump may not get the popular vote, but all he needs is a simple majority (270) of the 538 electoral votes to win the election.  At this time, the odds are that he could very well achieve this.

In the still unlikely scenario in which Biden steps down as the nominee, the delegates to the Democratic National Convention in August in Chicago would suddenly be charged with picking a new nominee.  Who that nominee would be is still anyone’s guess.  There is little doubt that an intense and hot debate is going on among Democrats behind the scene.  The heat keeps mounting every day and President Biden must be feeling it right now.  To my knowledge, at no time in the history of United States has such a development occurred between the two major parties!  With all the ongoing speculation, mainstream and social media are having a field day.  When it comes to the divisive nature of this issue for the Democratic Party, no one can really comprehend where it’s going at this time.  I, like many Canadians, hope that the Party can resolve the issue prior to the Convention.  Personally, the situation makes it very difficult to support President Biden’s bid for a second term in office.  The world is watching, including our adversaries.

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