FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Aug 31

Threats Against Politicians in Canada Becoming More Frequent and Inevitable

by bcurry

Verbal and physical threats against American politicians have been a constant factor in U.S. politics, with the most severe being the assassinations or attempts to assassinate politicians since that of John F. Kennedy.  In Canada, threats against political figures have grown in the last decade in particular.  During the 2019 federal electoral campaign, even Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was forced by his security detail in an “unprecedented” step to wear a bulletproof vest at a number of rallies.  It was also unprecedented to have a heavily armed uniformed Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) tactical team in plain sight around Trudeau, since normally they are in the background and out of site.  Just recently, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland was verbally accosted by a man in a hotel lobby in Grande Prairie, Alberta.  The incident, although Ms. Freeland was not physically hurt, is now under investigation by the RCMP for potential criminal charges.  At the moment, there is an election in the province of Quebec where emotions run high over the provincial government’s handling of the pandemic.  Security around Quebec’s provincial party leaders appears to be high in the early days of the election campaign.  The potential of threats has forced Party Quebecois (PQ) leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to wear a bulletproof vest to keep him safe.  His party certainly recalls the deadly election-night shooting that marred the victory party of former PQ premier Pauline Marois in September 2012.  Quebec provincial police spokesman Nicolas Scholtus did not confirm whether security around the campaigning leaders was higher than in previous years, but he acknowledged that there was a rise in reports of harassment or threats directed at Quebec politicians during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Numerous Canadian politicians of all stripes condemned recent incidents of hateful threats against the PM and ministers in his cabinet, especially where female ministers and members of Parliament are targeted.  The general theme of condemnation is that such behaviour has no place in Canada.  They sincerely believe that people all run for office to promote dialogue on important public policy issues, and harassment like this cannot be tolerated.  However, simply issuing statements of condemnation most likely will not have an impact on the current political environment.  The RCMP and other enforcement agencies will have to continue to collect intelligence and conduct threat assessments for all events that political leaders attend. 

Michael Kempa, an associate professor of criminology at the University of Ottawa, pointed out that politicians everywhere have been facing increased threats due to what he calls “the new reality of polarization and violence that’s directed against public facing political leaders and other activists in our community.”  Professor Kempa attributes this in part to the spread of U.S. political culture, where threat levels have been high for years, and also to the COVID-19 pandemic.  Canadians can no longer rely on a tradition of promoting civility in political dialogue.  In an age of social media and digital conspirators, it has become difficult to lower the temperature of the political climate.  There are just too many disgruntled and angry individuals out there who are convinced that threats and violence are the only way in which to confront governments and politicians.  Unfortunately, the continuing outrage by Donald Trump followers after the F.B.I.’s seizure of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago, Florida residence, has only contributed to further threats against government agencies, including the U.S. Justice Department and even the National Archives.  It doesn’t help that one of Mr. Trump’s closest allies, Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, issued a similar warning that Mr. Trump quickly reposted on his social media platform.  Mr. Graham, in a Fox News appearance on August 28th, predicted that if the search of Mar-a-Lago led to a prosecution of the former president, there would be “riots in the streets”.

Canada has its own radical factions, as demonstrated by the occupation of its capital, Ottawa, by members of the truckers’ convoy for three weeks in January of this year.  There is little doubt that federal and provincial politicians will be a target for disgruntled individuals and groups.  One can only hope that there will be no resulting physical assaults on politicians and leaders.  I’m afraid that given the current polarization within Canadian society that such eventuality cannot be prevented, despite heightened security measures for political figures.

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Aug 26

What If An Employer Asks You To Pee In A Cup?

by bcurry

Recently, a study in the U.S. found that positive workplace drug tests hit a two-decade high, fuelled largely by the legalization of marijuana across a variety of states.  Cannabis, also known as marijuana (among countless other names), was banned in Canada from 1923 until medical cannabis became legal in 2001.  In 2018 Canada became the second country in the world after Uruguay to legalize marijuana for recreational adult use, and the first G7 country to do so.  Studies have shown that as more young people enter the labour market, their attitudes about using recreational marijuana are much more liberal and open than older generations.

This brings us to the issue of drug testing in the workplace.  In Canada, for some time now, the courts have objected to random drug testing.  Only in the period after a workplace accident where it is suspected that drugs or alcohol may have been involved, did Canadian employers get the green light to do limited employee testing as part of any investigation.  By comparison in the U.S., some federal regulations actually require employers in the aviation and other in safety-sensitive industries to conduct random testing, specifying the minimum percentage of employees who must be covered each year.  However, American laws on drug testing are complex and vary from state to state.  The Supreme Court of Canada’s “Irving” decision in 2013, which set out guidelines for when random, unannounced tests can be justified, said that random testing had been “overwhelmingly” rejected by arbitrators as “an unjustified affront to the dignity and privacy” of employees in safety-sensitive jobs, except when there was reasonable cause.”  On the other hand, some two decades ago, the U.S. Supreme Court first upheld the right to test for drugs in the workplace.

Testing for substance use is in itself a problem, especially when it comes to cannabis.  Most important variable is frequency of use.  Unlike alcohol use, for a first time cannabis user a trace of cannabis use could last for 3 days.  For a daily user, it could last 30 days or more.  In addition, the higher the Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) level, which is the principal psychoactive constituent of cannabis, the longer it takes to metabolize in body.  Edibles take longer than smoking.  Weight and body fat also affect trace amounts due to THC binding to fat tissue.  More importantly, often capacity for detection and time to get results can depend on kind of tests given, such as urine, blood, saliva and hair tests.  Each testing method has a different ability to accurately determine the level of THC.  Normally, traces of cannabis use will disappear in about 30 days.  However, THC can be detectable for weeks, even months depending on one’s use, potency and frequency.

One of the privacy concerns with random testing is the matter of prescription medication and medical marijuana use which could disclose an underlying health issue that the employee may not want the employer to know about.  It could also disclose someone who is in addiction treatment.  Interestingly, there appears to a dearth of data from independent groups in the U.S. regarding impairment from prescription drugs in the workplace, partly because the issue has not drawn broad scrutiny.  However, Quest Diagnostics, an American clinical laboratory that operates in the U.S. and Canada and a prominent provider of workplace drug tests, said that the rate of employees testing positive for prescription opiates rose by more than 40 percent from 2005 to 2009, and by 18 percent in 2009 alone.  Increasingly, with an aging workforce, one can imagine that the use of prescription medication will increase, a concern for many industries in light of potential insurance liabilities.

As of now, Canadian case law severely restricts random drug testing of employees, even in safety-sensitive occupations.  For example, an Ontario court most recently struck down the Ottawa airport’s plan to conduct unannounced, random drug tests on its firefighters, citing a lack of evidence the group has a substance-abuse problem that would justify such a “highly intrusive” invasion of privacy.  The ability of an employer to require a random drug test appears to be much more difficult in Canada than in the U.S.  Some would say that there are pros and cons under certain situations, but much depends on previous case law in both jurisdictions.

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Aug 22

Both Canada and the U.S. have something in common: Dismal Economic Outlooks

by bcurry

When I was studying economic theory in college, one phrase kept leaping out at me: “Economics is the dismal science.”  This was partly due to the fact that I could never really be convinced that the discipline of economics was anything but a science.  Instead, I preferred to think of the reality of economics being continuously influenced by political policies and institutional structures, including those in the international sphere.  Control over the world’s economies is much more institutionalized than ever before.  The current economic situation in North America really highlights this perspective, especially given the reaction of bodies such as the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of Canada in dealing with the post-pandemic world.

In Canada, one is coping with the highest levels of inflation since 1995.  The U.S. is seeing the highest levels of inflation since the early 1980s.  On top of which, we’re getting economic data that is fluctuating quite rapidly, so it’s very hard to get a precise read on where the economy is at any point in time.  The additional fear now is that both these monetary bodies are increasing the prime rates in order to tackle this hyperinflation at a time when the economy is attempting to get back on its feet after the disastrous pandemic period — thus the concerns about a potential recession in both countries and around the world.

Now, you don’t have to be an economist to know that something’s wrong.  Filling up your gas tank, buying a home and purchasing groceries just got incredibly more expensive!  Governments blame much of the distress on post-pandemic supply chain problems and global fuel-food shortages due to the Russia-Ukraine war.  On top of which, there are suddenly skilled labour shortages in most countries, leading to increasing wage levels and low unemployment rates.  The current situation has particularly been led by Boomers, many of whom have chosen to retire.  An April paper by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond found that “the pandemic has permanently reduced participation in the economy.”  Due to the lack of and high cost of child care for example, many women are financially unable to return to the labour market.  In order to fill many jobs, countries are having again to look to immigration policies as a possible solution.

Recent blow-out jobs reports may have quieted claims that the U.S. is in a recession, but it did not end the mystery about the state of the economy or resolve questions about where it is headed.  Should a recession evolve in the U.S., past experience would suggest that Canada is not far behind.  Similarly, both federal governments are under the gun to do something about inflation — a major political issue.  However, as most analysts state, the current economic situation is something completely new and unprecedented in light of post-pandemic elements and the current global situation with respect to supply chains, especially in Europe.

Higher interest rates as a result of Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of Canada benchmark interest rate increases to control the hyperinflation will have an immediate impact on lowering economic growth.  Consumers feeling the hit will most likely have to cut back on expenditures, including the purchases of homes due to the subsequent rise in mortgage rates.  Whether or not we are on the brink of a major recession is still up in the air.  There is no sector of the economy that hasn’t been affected during this so-called recovery period. 

However, how about longer-term predictions?  As the famous British economist, John Maynard Keynes, once said: “In the long-run, we are all dead.”  He further noted that aggregate demand does not necessarily equal the productive capacity of the economy.  Instead, it is influenced by a host of factors —sometimes behaving erratically — affecting production, employment and inflation.  As of today, this definitely appears to be the case.  All any of us can do is hope to survive during the foreseen continuing turmoil within the markets and the economy in general.  In the spirit of economics as a ‘dismal science’, most economists for are not overly optimistic about improved short-term growth. 

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Aug 14

Once Donald Trump’s Actions Were Considered Farcical, Now They’re Considered Dangerous

by bcurry

During the former president’s term in office, Donald Trump often became the butt of many a comedian jokes, most notably on NBC’s Saturday Night Live.  Yes, previous presidents have been made fun of from time to time.  However, once Trump lost the election and his declaration that the election was stolen led to the January 6th assault on the Capitol, he has now become even more dangerous.  No longer as the president, recent events have shown how his actions and statements have created a precarious situation.  The search this past week by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) of his private residence at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida., was one more incident of now citizen Trump believing he is above the law.  The legal search appeared to be part of a long-running investigation of whether documents — some of them top-secret — were taken there instead of being sent to the National Archives when Trump left office.  There could be several violations falling under federal statutes, including the Espionage Act and Presidential Records Act.  Apparently, about twelve boxes containing classified documents were seized by the FBI.

Immediately after news broke of the FBI search at Trump’s Florida residence, posts began appearing on Truth Social, the Twitter-like social media platform backed by former Trump’s media and technology company.  Truth Social users called for civil war and advocated for violence against the FBI, some of the posts remaining online days after they were originally posted, according to NBC News.  Unfortunately, a number of Republicans and media sources such as Fox News and Breibart News attacked the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), specifically Attorney General Merrick Garland, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray and the FBI agents as part of the Democrat’s plot to tarnish the reputation of Donald Trump and to prevent him from running again in 2024.  According to the warrant and receipt of what authorities seized, Trump is being investigated for possibly breaking three federal laws: removal or destruction of records, obstructing an investigation and violating the Espionage Act.  Serious stuff!

The result of Trump’s accusing the DOJ and FBI of contributing to a witch hunt and that he had done nothing wrong, talk of violence by his supporters continues to mount.  Threats have been made against the federal judge who authorized the warrant to search for classified material and FBI agents whose names were on the warrant and receipt.  Then on August 11th, a 42-year-old Ohio man, identified as Ricky W. Shiffer, showed up at the Cincinnati field office of the FBI with an AR-15-style rifle.  Subsequently, he was shot to death after firing multiple times at the police during a standoff.  Mr. Shiffer’s social media posts later revealed that he was full of rage about, among other things, the search at Mar-a-Lago.

As Alan Feuer of the New York Times notes, as right-wing rhetoric escalates, so do threats and violence.  In his August 13th article, he refers to a study by Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago who studies political violence.  Professor Pape conducted half a dozen nationwide polls since the Jan. 6th attack and has repeatedly found the same alarming results: that between 15 million and 20 million American adults believe that violence would be justified to return Mr. Trump to office.  Instead of defusing the situation, Donald Trump, along with his supporters, continue to promote conspiracy theories.  He believes that a number of current investigations are simply examples of his ‘persecution’ by Democratic administrations in Washington and New York State.  Once again, the whole affair is a hoax.  He and members of his family have even suggested, ridiculously, that the classified documents were likely planted by the FBI during the search.  Even former Vice-President Mike Pence was quoted as sharing the “deep concern of millions of Americans over the unprecedented search of the personal residence of President Trump.”  Pence declared that after years where FBI agents were found to be acting on political motivation during his administration, the appearance of continued partisanship by the DOJ had to be addressed.  Remember how Trump fired then FBI Director James Comey in 2017 because he refused to pledge his loyalty to the President, no matter what!

Unless the hostile rhetoric and threats are quickly dealt with, there is little doubt that more violent incidents could occur, particularly against the targeted individuals noted above.  Obviously, the investigation by the DOJ and FBI is no joke.  This is the first time since Nixon and ‘Watergate’ that a former President is under investigation for violating several federal statutes.  My understanding is that no one is above the law.  However, under the current climate, the political ramifications of pursuing Donald Trump could determine whether further violence occurs and what will be the potential impact on the 2024 presidential election.

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Aug 9

Would You Be Interested In A Four-Day Workweek?

by bcurry

Between 2015 and 2019, several large-scale trials in the public sector of a four-day workweek were carried out in Iceland.  The results showed that the trials turned out to be an “overwhelming success,” with many workers shifting to shorter hours without affecting their productivity.  Some of the trials’ key findings showed that a shorter week translated into increased well-being of employees among a range of indicators, from stress and burnout to health and work-life balance.  The idea of the four-day week has been gaining ground in countries like New Zealand, Spain and Germany.  In the U.S. and Canada, a small but growing number of firms are moving to a four-day workweek that runs from Monday to Thursday.  In addition, the pandemic created a situation where employers began to experiment with alternative working arrangements, ranging from remote work to a variety of hybrid work routines including a four-day workweek.  Employers are expected to continue offering alternative working arrangements as a means to retain existing employees and to recruit new workers, especially given the tight labour markets found in most countries.

Now, there is not really anything new about employers implementing a four-day workweek for interested employees.  Long before the pandemic, I can recall several employers, especially in the public sector, who instituted policies allowing for some employees, where applicable, to work for four days a week and with the same number of weekly hours and wages.  For certain employees, the additional day off meant that they could spend more time with their families and use the extra free time to improve work-life balance.

More recently, there are those that would argue that a four-day workweek would help to reduce our carbon footprint.  For example, one or more fewer commutes to and from work would be required each week.  Transportation is the biggest contributor to greenhouse emissions, especially for vehicles using gas or diesel.  In 2020, according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the transportation sector accounted for about 27 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.  Commuting is a big part of that.  It’s noteworthy that global emissions plunged an unprecedented 17 percent during the coronavirus pandemic and the air quality in cities around the world showed a marked improvement.  In North America, the high cost of housing in urban cores has meant that many workers have bought more affordable homes in the outskirts, a trend increased during the pandemic by a significant percentage of workers working remotely from home.

In addition, Juliet Schor, an economist and sociologist at Boston College who researches work, consumption and climate change, noted that energy could also be conserved if less resources are needed to heat and cool large office buildings.  However, to reduce demands on electricity, buildings would have to be pretty well shut down entirely for a day.  According to Scientific American, when the Utah state government launched a four-day workweek trial among its employees in 2008, one report projected that shutting down buildings on Fridays would lead to a decrease of at least 6,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually.  However, any potential energy-saving gains hinge on how companies and individuals use resources.  At a time when many companies are looking at ways to incur cost savings, the implementation of a four-day workweek might be appealing.

As more and more white-collar workers across the country settle into hybrid work routines, one thing is becoming clear: Nobody wants to be in the office on Fridays.  This premise came up time and time again in several related articles.  With hybrid working routines becoming more of a fixture in workplaces, it’s easy to see why employers are increasingly looking for more adaptable offices with more communal spaces and gathering areas instead of traditional cubicles or walled-in offices.  Issues surrounding work-life balance and healthy workplaces will continue to surface in the post-pandemic era.  Businesses and their workers will no doubt have to be more creative in developing appropriate alternative working arrangements, including possibly a four-day workweek.

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Aug 5

For Most Urban Centres, Affordable Housing Continues To Be A Primary Issue

by bcurry

For several years now, the issue of affordable housing has become a major concern in most of North America’s major cities.  We are especially talking about a large segment of young people who are questioning whether or not they can afford a home.  Middle-income households are now struggling with the issue of affordability in many of our cities.  For the last decade, New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco in the U.S. and Toronto and Vancouver in Canada are examples of wealthy cities that have failed to meet the housing needs of low- and middle-income households.  What’s crazy is that in the last few years, the costs of housing jumped leaps and bounds, making it almost impossible for young middle-class individuals and families to afford a home despite low mortgage interest rates.  For example, the average price of a home in Canada peaked at just over $790,000 in February 2022, marking a 50 percent increase over two years.  The same situation has emerged in the most American cities.

Enter local, regional and national governments who began to introduce numerous programs and bagfuls of money to encourage developers to build more affordable homes, especially in a market where demand outstripped the housing supply.  The difficulty in today’s post-pandemic era is that developers themselves are being faced with increasing labour costs and shortages, higher land prices and construction costs, as well as financing constraints.  As a result, governments at all levels were showering developers and consumer groups with incentives, including tax breaks, reduced fees and promises of quick approval times.  Some housing activists would like more public funding to be funnelled into purpose-built rentals and co-operative housing — or “non-profit housing.”  Despite such incentives, affordable housing scarcity remains the number one concern in most communities.  In order to own a home, some people are being forced to purchase homes in outlying areas, creating what we call “rurbanization.”  Since many will work in the urban core, this then leads to increased commuting times and greater congestion on feeder routes, never mind environmental concerns over increased air pollution and greenhouse emissions.

Now, central banks in both countries are increasing their rates in order to curb the current hyperinflation.  It is anticipated that rising mortgage rates will force a decline in housing prices as more and more potential buyers back out of the market.  However, the housing correction is seen as only being a small “blip.”  Even with today’s expected price drop, some Canadian analysts note that the lower asking prices will still be nearly 30 percent above what they were in December 2019.

The costs of a lack of affordable housing can stretch into the broader economy as well.  When households are financially stretched with a greater share of income going to housing — often 50 percent or more, their consumption of other goods declines.  The lack of affordable housing has forced many the turn to the rental market for short-term accommodation, thereby causing a significant increase in rents in many cities.  Such is the “domino effect.”  The danger now is that the cuts in consumption will contribute to what economists believe will be a recession in both Canada and the U.S.  Under these circumstances, how can young people or couples really consider investing in home ownership?  Based on his observations, one analyst even suggested that there are women in their 20s who want to have babies, but put off doing so given that real estate prices are interfering with their ability to start a family.

From time to time, I read of huge mansions and estates selling for millions of dollars in cities like Toronto or Los Angeles.  This may be fine for multi-millionaires, but does little for the so-called struggling middle-class.  As a boomer, I was fortunate to live during a period when wages were good enough to buy a modest home in one of Canada’s biggest cities.  One can only ask if the age-old dream of home ownership has slowly but surely collapsed in today’s economy?  One cannot but feel for the millennials who it was estimated in 2019 could take up to 29 years to save enough money to afford a home in some of Canada’s biggest cities.

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Aug 2

Return to Offices in Post-Pandemic Era

by bcurry

Over two years after the pandemic abruptly forced tens of millions of people to start working from home, disrupting family lives and derailing careers, employers are now getting ready to bring workers back to offices.  However, it appears that workers in North America’s midsize and small cities have returned to the office in far greater numbers than those in the biggest cities.  Offices apparently have filled back up fastest in areas where COVID lockdowns were shortest and where commutes are done by car, rather than by public transit. 

In light of the Omicron variants which are creating other waves, the fact that the COVID pandemic is not over has created a snag in how employers are dealing with remote and in-person work.  In particular, the situation has forced some large and major employers to delay a return to the office.  The pandemic has also pushed employees to look at the health and safety protocols of their jobs and to become more vocal about the level of risk and the hazards they are facing.  Recruiters note that regional differences in office attendance and flexible work are making for a bumpier job market, especially given the increased competition for skilled workers in the current labour market.  In certain cases, some companies are forced to advertise jobs where the work is primarily done remotely.

Back-to-office plans have to take into consideration a number of challenges in order to accommodate workers in a healthy and safety manner.  The era of stuffing people into offices like sardines is over.  The inadequacy and poor quality of many existing office buildings was simply illustrated by the conditions surrounding the pandemic.  Indoor ventilation, air filtration and overcrowding became major concerns given the fact that highly infectious COVID was shown to be primarily spread as an aerosol.  The interior of many office towers today are climate controlled whereby one cannot open the windows in order to increase air quality.  Improving the ventilation and filtration systems has led to increased costs for landlords and tenants alike.  Another cost has been the need to have more stringent and frequent cleaning practices.

With health restrictions lifting, many workers are being called back to the in-person workplace, which can bring up a number of different feelings.  Employers can help ease this transition by having a comprehensive return-to-work plan, and clearly communicating it to workers.  Besides potential physical health hazards, there is also a need to address potential psychological hazards given the anxiety and stress that some returning employees may incur.  A gradual return to the workplace may ease anxiety, possibly by allowing for partial in-person work in the initial stages of the return-to-work plan.  There may also be a degree of anxiety of employees working alongside people who have not been vaccinated for COVID.  The question of mandated vaccination of workers became a highly controversial issue during this pandemic, causing a major schism between the vaccinated and unvaccinated.  Employers will have to address the issue as a policy matter and communicate their policy in a clear and concise manner.  They will also have to acknowledge and follow up on worker concerns or complaints.  They will have to show compassion and understanding that workers, particularly those that are immunocompromised, may be stressed, harassed or feel anxious.

How long will employers remain flexible?  When the pandemic loosens its grip, inevitably bosses could well demand that people file back in, and pronto.  The real question is whether the return-to-office plan will be done in a gradual, effective and controlled manner.  Several serious issues will have to be considered by employers as part of their plan, as highlighted above.  If the plan is not well thought out and effectively communicated, the issue of employee retention will quickly surface.  The situation of each individual employee will have to be taken into account and continuously monitored at the outset.  Flexibility is a key.  Employers may incur additional initial costs but they will be worthwhile in the long run.

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