FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Jan 30

Did the U.S. and Canadian Economies Hit Bottom in 2020?

by bcurry

Starting back in March/April of last year, economists began to see that the lockdowns and restrictions caused by COVID-19 were beginning to show a detrimental impact on both the American and Canadian economies.  The economic decline is clearly shown by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics which are used as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health.  As a broad measure of overall domestic production, the GDP is defined as the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period.

The U.S. GDP shrank by 3.5 percent last year as the novel coronavirus upended American businesses and households, making 2020 the worst year for U.S. economic growth since 1946. Similarly, the real GDP in Canada decreased 5.1 percent in 2020 (from the 2019 annual level to the 2020 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in 2019.  In addition, unemployment rates in both countries climbed and continue to climb to this day with new layoffs by major companies being announced daily.

The real question now is as to whether the economies have hit bottom?  Or will things just get worst as we continue to battle the current coronavirus outbreaks, especially the new variants, and the rate of vaccinations continues to lag behind?  Optimistically, economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal predict a strong rebound in 2021, with the economy growing by 4.3 percent.  Looking forward in the long-term in Canada, the GDP growth rate is projected to trend around 2.70 percent in 2021 and 1.70 percent in 2022, according to several econometric models.  Nothing really to brag about!  The Chinese GDP is expected to grow by over 6.0 percent this year.

While GDP projections are all good and dandy, there are several issues of concern when it comes to both economies.  The longer the pandemic reigns, the biggest concern continues to be the impact on small businesses.  Many small businesses in the retail and service sectors will not survive.  Remember that small businesses are still the biggest creators of new employment.  Travel, hospitality and recreational sectors have also been hit hard, and their survival will greatly depend on how quickly their customers feel safe enough to once again travel.  One must ask also just how well our health care systems will cope with rising COVID cases?  In addition, the economy will emerge in a very different form, especially when it comes to the make up of the labour market and the increasing use of new technologies.  We more than likely will continue to see high unemployment rates in the near future, especially among women, youth, minorities and vulnerable groups.  Given continuing job security concerns, will people begin to once again consume at normal rates?  My feeling is that our economies have not as yet really hit bottom.  Unfortunately, it may be months before one really sees any kind of actual turnaround.

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Jan 24

Churches vs. the State on Pandemic-Related Restrictions for Gatherings

by bcurry

It has come to my attention that a number of churches, in this case located in British Columbia (B.C.) Canada, are challenging public health measures in the courts claiming that they unfairly target religious gatherings.  According to legal experts and theologians, the legal arguments, largely based on interpretations of the Bible and the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, can cut it both ways.  Firstly, by way of background, the province of B.C. was among the first to introduce a number of restrictions back in the spring of 2020.  Public health orders put in place at the recommendation of Dr. Bonnie Henry’s (B.C.’s provincial health officer) appeared to have successfully contained the first outbreak of COVID-19 in the province.  With the current second wave, public health measures have been reintroduced to deal with recent outbreaks, particularly in the Vancouver area.  To date, COVID-19 has killed more than 1,000 people in B.C. and infected more than 60,000 people in the province of a little over 5 million.  There is little doubt that public health authorities are worried that the second wave could increase hospitalizations of COVID-19 cases and overload the health care system — a concern also arising in other larger provinces.  According to federal statistics, about 7.6 percent of COVID-19 patients have been hospitalized.

What I found particularly alarming was a statement by one clergy member that this is not the bubonic plague and fifty thousand people have not died in B.C., thereby arguing that they are not in that health emergency place.  One must then ask, just how many deaths would it take to justify putting into place health emergency measures?  Ten thousand, twenty thousand or thirty thousand?  The clergy then goes on to argue that there is no authority except that which God has established.  As a result, there are those who believe that the dissenting churches are being influenced by U.S.-based evangelicals who see COVID-19 restrictions as an affront to their freedoms.  Indeed, certain church groups appear to be taking their claims from a kind of American version of religious freedom, which isn’t a Canadian one.

Once again, the current extraordinary situation contains familiar arguments surrounding religion vs. science.  I would happily leave such a debate to the theologians and philosophers.  From a holistic and realistic point of view, governments are obviously within their rights to use their powers to limit the potential for future COVID-related deaths and sickness, including declaring a state of emergency.  In light of the alarming increase in COVID-19 cases, greater transmission rates and the arrival of more contagious variants, many forms of indoor and outdoor gatherings have been restricted in numbers.  Until enough persons are vaccinated, we have little option but to continue such public health measures.  Most legal experts in Canada believe that religious institutions which deliberately and flagrantly violate basic public health requirements during the pandemic will probably receive very little sympathy from the courts.  And rightly so!

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Jan 21

Issues Surrounding Daily News Now Being Absorbed Electronically In Bits and Bytes

by bcurry

In 2008, I read an interesting book by Mark Bauerlein entitled “The Dumbest Generation”.  In it, the author discusses how the Digital Age stupefies young Americans, asserting that this jeopardizes our future.  The results may be particularly problematic given that many Canadians, Americans and others get the majority of their local, national and international news through electronic media.  As asserted in the past (Finally the American mainstream media got it right – Oct. 26, 2020) there has been a significant decline in mainstream print media.  There also has been a lot of misinformation and disinformation put out by online sources trying to appear to be reliable sources of news.  Unfortunately, way too much of this situation occurred during the Trump era, as witnessed by conspiracies surrounding the 2020 presidential election and the COVID-19 pandemic. 

How many people really take the time to consult mainstream media outlets in print, on the radio, on television and through the Internet?  When researching a story, I like to have as many facts as possible and sometimes several interpretations of those facts from several reliable sources.  By reliable, I mean that the reports have been vetted a number of times and the dependability of the sources has been confirmed.  Unfortunately, this is frequently not the case with many Internet sources.  In addition, while we all have our opinions about a subject matter, we should try to obtain as many viewpoints as possible before reaching too quickly any immediate conclusions.  Failure to do so leads us to what is referred to as “confirmation bias”.  This is where one attempts to confirm one’s beliefs and viewpoints by selectively seeking out those sources which simply reinforce our preconceptions.

Unfortunately, this is what a lot of extreme right-wing or left-wing proponents do in order to justify their interpretations of news events.  The extreme right has for years festered in a variety of places on the Internet, including 4chan, Parler, Gab, CloutHub, etc., etc.  Of course, then there is the Breitbart News Network (known commonly as Breitbart News) which is an American far-right syndicated news, opinion and commentary website founded in mid-2007.  Breitbart has published a number of falsehoods and conspiracy theories as well as intentionally misleading stories, including claims that Hillary Clinton and the Obama administration supported the ISIS.  Breitbart columnists love to attack The Washington Post and The New York Times as being “the mortal enemy of conservatism” (Joshua Klein, Breitbart, 25 Dec. 2020).  Normally, it is rare for mainstream media to attack another media source in this manner, but not for Breitbart.  Breitbart also spent an inordinate amount on its election news coverage, especially anything dealing with unfounded allegations that the Democrats stole the election from Trump.

More has to be done to alert young people in particular about the need to seek out news from different sources, including mainstream print media.  It is just not good enough to have them be informed by too conveniently accessing bits and bytes.  There is a real danger that they will be influenced by conspiracy theories and could become radicalized in one form or another.  Want to know about historical events, read a book or view documentaries on the History Channel.  Even better, talk to some informed people who actually witnessed the events in real time.  The truth is out there, one only has to take the time and make an effort to find it.

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Jan 17

Maybe It’s Time That We All Look More Closely How ‘Twitter’ Is Being Used

by bcurry

Online harassment and hate speech have long festered on Twitter, but the incidents appeared to have risen during the 2016 presidential campaign.  Exchanges between supporters of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton grew personal and acrimonious.  Of course, over the last four years, Trump has used twitter as his personal means to attack opponents and to spew conspiracy theories such as claiming that the Democrats had stolen the presidential election.  Twitter finally did the right thing and cut him off after the Capitol riot which he helped to instigate.  Now, an interesting defemation case against Twitter has arisen in Canada — more specifically in British Columbia (B.C.).

B.C. billionaire Frank Giustra, a Vancouver businessman and philanthropist, has recently won the right to sue Twitter for defamation after a judge ruled that B.C. courts have jurisdiction to hear the case.  Moreover, the case once again highlights the fact that there are jurisdictional difficulties with internet defamation cases.  Under American law, Twitter would not be liable for damages to Giustra in the U.S. due to freedom of speech provisions in the First Amendment.  However, in Canada the question becomes whether Canadian common law provides similar protections for a platform such as Twitter.  The answer would have to be determined in Canadian courts, with a possibility of eventually ending up in the Supreme Court of Canada.

Remember the infamous “Pizzagate”.  In the above case, tweets promoting a conspiracy theory had gone out during the 2016 U.S. presidential election that Hillary Clinton and other supporters were involved in child sex-trafficking.  Among those supporters targeted was Frank Giustra who sits on the board of the Clinton Foundation, a non-profit organization founded by former U.S. president Bill Clinton.  The related tweets also left the false impression that Mr. Giustra was corrupt, a “murderous thief” and a criminal.  The whole crazy conspiracy was of course debunked.

There is nothing particularly new about Twitter being accused of allowing hate speech and disinformation to permeate its platform.  What is especially interesting is that this self-made billionaire is financially capable of taking on an internet Goliath in the courts, with possibly a good chance of winning his defamation case under Canadian common law.  Once again, people are hoping that this particular lawsuit will help raise public awareness of the real harm to society if social media platforms are not held responsible for the content posted and published on their sites.  Although Twitter has yet to file a response to the defamation claims, the company has indicated it intends to defend the case mainly on the basis that it is not a publisher of the tweets.  Unfortunately, the time normally taken to try such cases in the courts can be very lengthy, even taking several years for final judgement.  In the meantime, it behooves us all to be aware of the real flaws and dangers associated with the misuse of social media, including those surrounding Twitter.

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Jan 15

Donald Trump: To Convict or Not to Convict?

by bcurry

Now that the House of Representatives has voted to impeach the president, the question on everyone’s mind is whether the Senate will hold a trial which could lead to Trump’s conviction for his role in inciting the riot on Capitol Hill on January 6th.  It has been reported that although Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the majority leader, has privately told advisers that he approves of the impeachment drive and believes it could help his party purge itself of Mr. Trump, he refused to begin the proceedings this week while he is still in charge.  Despite having some support to convict among several Republican senators, the fact is that the Senate needs a two-third majority to convict.  Doing so would open the door to disqualifying Trump from holding office in the future.  The chances of this happening are very improbable.

The fact is that the Republican Party is still split over its support for Donald Trump and his populist movement.  Indeed, Trump has installed loyal supporters in all of the G.O.P.’s establishment bodies.  For example, since Trump’s 2016 victory, 91 of the 168 positions on the Republican Nationwide Committee have turned over, with nearly all the newcomers elected by Trump-aligned state events.  Several news headlines read: “Deep In the G.O.P. Ranks, the MAGA Mind-Set Prevails.”  It also appears that a vocal wing of the party maintains an almost-religious devotion to the president, and these supporters, especially at the state and local levels, don’t hold him responsible for the mob violence last week.

Unfortunately for the Republican Party, the schism between Trump supporters and the G.O.P. establishment will exist for some time to come.  Without a conviction by the Senate, Donald Trump will continue to hang around, along with his conspiracy theories.  A very recent Axios-Ipsos ballot following the Capitol riot confirmed that a majority of Republicans help the president’s latest habits and say he still ought to be the Republican nominee in 2024. In addition, many Trump supporters are clamoring to go after any of the Republican members of Congress who voted for impeachment or against the motion to investigate the voting results of the presidential election.  Some of those Republican members now even fear for their lives.

Various Republicans in Congress believe that proceeding with an impeachment trial in the Senate will only pour gasoline on the already raging fire among Trump supporters.  They believe that such a move will further divide the nation at a time when a new administration is being sworn in.  Given the volatility of the current situation, they may have a legitimate argument.  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has discretion over when to transmit the article of impeachment sometime next week, formally initiating the Senate proceeding.  While this may be the right thing to do in light of the serious charges against Trump, the timing may not be good for the country.  The House members, including ten Republicans, have made their point and expression of justifiable outrage over the president’s actions leading up to and following the Capitol riot.  After all, his legacy now includes being the only American president to be impeached twice.  Proceeding to convict represents a greater threat to the G.O.P. than anyone else, and may only provide more ammunition to Trump loyalists to continue their fight within the party.  Hopefully, not literally!

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Jan 11

Following Capitol Hill Riot, Republican Party Is In Disarray

by bcurry

Despite what the Republican National Committee may say about its continuing support for Donald Trump, there is increasing evidence that the GOP is a very much more splintered group following the attempted coup at the Capitol by a pro-Trump mob.  This disarray extends to GOP members of Congress.  It is reported that the 127 who voted to overthrow president-elect Joe Biden’s electoral victory are facing fierce backlash from donors, constituents, and even some GOP colleagues. 

The party also faces a threat to its financial base.  Several of the most powerful and normally non-political business federations in Washington denounced the chaos this week in stinging language, including the National Association of Manufacturers, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable.  Several major business leaders voiced alarm at the threat it posed to a democracy which most Americans had taken for granted and at the role of these rogue Republican lawmakers. 

Then there are the evangelicals who represent roughly one quarter of Americans and who supported Trump and the GOP for their pro-religion views.  White evangelicals embraced the president, some begrudgingly and some enthusiastically, because he addressed many of their concerns.  Now, they are talking about finally witnessing an evangelical reckoning and the about the dangers of Trumpism.  A lot of introspection is happening among evangelicals.

There is clearly a conundrum wherein the GOP finds itself beholden to voters who’ve internalized the president’s falsehoods and were emboldened by Trump’s divisive speak.  There is little doubt that a schism exists among Trump’s supporters which may be hard to quickly mend.  In one report shortly after the Capitol assault, a veteran GOP pollster Frank Luntz carried out a spotlight group composed of a few Trump voters from different states.  In it, he stated that they fell into three camps:

  • those who consider the truth that President-elect Joe Biden won the election and believe that it’s time for Trump move on;
  • those who believe that the election was stolen from Trump, but he nonetheless ought to move on; and
  • those who insist it was stolen and Trump ought to continue to struggle in some way.

Rep. Nancy Mace, a newly elected Republican freshman from South Carolina and a strong past supporter of Trump, openly declared in the media: “That legacy has now been wiped out,” Mace stated. “It is gone, and we have to start over from scratch.”  Whether the president is impeached or censured, the fact is that significant damage has been done to the Republican Party.  It would appear that Trump supporters and GOP members of Congress are ready to declare war with each other.  The best thing for the future of the GOP is for Trump and his legacy to quietly fade away into the abyss.  As long as Trump has any future involvement with the party, there will continue to be even more destructive disarray.  His ties to the party need to be cut ASAP.  Otherwise, the internal healing can’t start soon enough for most Republican supporters!

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Jan 9

Trump set up Vice President Mike Pence’s down-fall among his supporters

by bcurry

VP Mike Pence came under intense pressure from Donald Trump to toss out the election results during the confirmation within Congress of the Electoral College votes validating the win by President-elect Joe Biden and VP-elect Pamela Harris.  However, Pence had no constitutional authority to do any such thing, and he correctly refused to buckle to the President’s demands to engineer a procedural coup that would keep him in power.  It has been reported by sources close to the vice president that he clearly was being set up as a “scapegoat” to shoulder the blame by angry Trump supporters.

What is further egregious is that during the Capital Hill riot by Trump supporters, the President and top White House officials did not even contact the vice president to ensure that he and his family, who were inside the U.S. Capitol at the time, were unharmed.  Several rioters were reported to have shouted that they were looking to find the vice president in order to capture and execute him as a traitor.  In spite of this, full credit must be given to the vice president for his return following the riot to continue the debate and the ceremonial counting of the electoral votes in Congress.

However, where does this moment leave Mike Pence’s status as a potential Republican candidate for the Presidency in 2024?  Here was a man who had been extremely loyal to Donald Trump throughout his presidency.  Now he obviously has been thrown under the bus by Trump who just can’t admit defeat and wants another scapegoat.  As witnessed in reports from the Republican National Committee following the Capitol rioting, there nevertheless remains continuing support for Trump’s leading role in the GOP.  Moreover, despite evidence to the contrary, party members, one after another, said in interviews that the president did not bear any blame for the violence at the Capitol.  However, privately, a group of Republican officials, mostly those from the pre-Trump establishment wing of the party, said that they were appalled by the president’s conduct.  Alas, there is a clear division within the GOP as to how to proceed without angering Trump’s base which they continue to perceive as crucial to win future elections.

Senators Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz obviously tried to position themselves as heirs to Trump’s base and they remained largely unrepentant for their actions after this week’s deadly riot.  However, a group of Republican officials, mostly those from the pre-Trump establishment wing of the party, said that they were appalled by the each senator’s conduct during the certification of election results.  The GOP for now is a very divided party.  After all, a lot of introspection needs to occur among Republicans as to where the party is going and what will be its future electoral platforms.  One needs to remember that Trump is the first president since Herbert Hoover to preside over the loss of the White House, the House and the Senate in a single term.  Despite the election results, the Republican rank and file don’t yet appear to be all that fazed!

At this time, Mike Pence appears to be the odd man out.  Will Trump ever forgive him for failing to attempt to toss out the election results?  Trump has never appeared to be a very forgiving person when it comes to anyone appearing to be disloyal to him.  One only has to look at his past erratic history with those supposedly close to him.  When it comes to future political aspirations within the GOP, good luck Mr. Pence for you’ll need it.

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Jan 4

Americans in 2021 will be even more divided than ever

by bcurry

While one may welcome in the New Year, there is little doubt that Americans will be even more divided than ever.  Even a pandemic could not bring Americans together after the recent presidential election.  Spurred on by outgoing President Trump, numerous Republicans and conspirators such as QAnon, many Americans believe that his re-election was stolen by a corrupt voting system.  They have managed to put the very essence of democracy under a microscope for all the wrong reasons.

Many Americans look at Democrats and see a party made up primarily of radical lefties, blacks, LGBtQ+, and belonging to an apparatus run by political elites, business leaders and Hollywood celebrities who are also pedophiles and actively working against Trump.  Democrats see Republicans as white, right-wing, evangelical and gun-toting folk.  While these perceptions are far from the truth, polls nevertheless have shown that they are basically how both sides like politically to characterize the other party’s membership.  Even concerted efforts to deal with the pandemic have not brought the two sides any closer together.

Following the U.S. election outcome, several Republicans in Congress and elsewhere have unfortunately continued to cater to Trump’s base by promoting false and misleading accusations about the voting process.  With so much anger in the air and a President who refuses to concede his loss, the political and social atmosphere is more toxic than ever.  The right-wing extremist Proud Boys will march on Washington as Senator Ted Cruz leads 12 GOP senators who are still trying futilely to overturn the results of the presidential election only to appease Trump’s base.

What all this means is that President-elect Joe Biden’s first major challenge will be to convince many Americans that his administration is legitimate, something rarely heard of in U.S. history.  Protests will follow with both pro-Biden and pro-Trump supporters attempting to out shout the other side in front of far from neutral media.   Depending on what happens in the two Georgia runoffs for the U.S. Senate, Congress may or may not become a continuing stalemate of ideological differences.  President-elect Biden’s administration will have their work cut out for them to get anything significant accomplished in the next four years.  With the divisions running so deep and Donald Trump screaming in the Twitter background, one cannot envy the challenges that his administration will face in the coming months.

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