Well, here we are. We’ve almost survived the summer of COVID-19 and are anxiously awaiting to see that the fall has to offer. Kids are going back to schools for the most part across the continent. Parents are as anxious as ever for their safety. Already, there are signs that troubled waters lie ahead, especially on college campuses. While the coronavirus outbreaks are relatively under control in Canada, the same cannot be said for the U.S. Community cases continue to emerge in the mid-west and in California. Over six million COVID-19 cases have to date been confirmed in the U.S., making it statistically the leading country in the pandemic, ahead of such countries as Brazil and India.
In the meantime, the U.S. is preparing itself for a presidential election which everyday is becoming nastier and nastier. Donald Trump will keep on tweeting right up to election day and will continue to use scare tactics and conspiracy theories to justify his position. There is no doubt that this will be the weirdest American election of all time — virtual or not. As a long-time student of American political history, this should be one for the books — and there are plenty of those already starting to emerge.
As far as the North American economies go, tougher times are expected. As of mid-August, more than 29 million Americans were receiving some sort of unemployment insurance. In Canada, although there was a labour market improvement in August, that may not be as robust as headlines suggest. The fact is that most of the job gains have been due to the return of workers, especially part-timers, who became unemployed during the early stages of the pandemic. The damage to both economies has been wide and deep. Economic growth is in negative territory and is not expected to improve substantively for some time, perhaps years. The two big risks for the recovery remain the uncertainty around back-to-school plans and the onset of colder weather which will also bring in the normal influenza season and potential second waves of COVID-19.
There appear to be two economies in both countries, that of wall street and that of main street. The average American and Canadian is struggling to pay their bills, make mortgage payments and put food on the table. The rich on the other hand are just getting wealthier, exacerbating the already established inequalities in society. A huge question remains as to how long government assistance can continue? The U.S. debt is set to exceed the size of the economy next year, a first Since World War II. The federal debt held by the public projected to reach or exceed 100% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). In Canada, the combined debt level of all governments is poised to surge to an unprecedented $1.9 trillion or 85% of GDP.
The fact of the matter is that the only way that both economies can improve is by first getting COVID-19 outbreaks under control and, as experts note, by flattening the curve related to community spread. In the meantime, school re-openings will no doubt test the resolve for both parents and politicians alike.
FROLITICKS 
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