FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Mar 30

Whenever and Wherever It Starts, Economic Turnaround Will Take Time

by bcurry

A recent New York Times article was entitled: “Scary Times for U.S. Companies Spell Boom for Restructuring Advisers.”  Another earlier New York Times article was entitled: Businesses Face a New Coronavirus Threat: Shrinking Access to Credit.” One just has to look around urban centers and rural areas where small and medium businesses have been forced to close to see the economic results.  Hoteliers, retail outlets, cruise lines, restaurants, event sponsors and mortgage lenders are among those suddenly short on cash, with travel and outdoor activity at a standstill and unemployment soaring. Only essential-deemed enterprises and services can remain open on a restricted basis, hardly enough to maintain a society’s economic engine and GDP growth.

A Financial Post article is entitled: “The global oil market is broken, drowning in crude nobody needs.” It goes on to note that the next stage of the oil market’s meltdown will be widespread production shutdowns — and it’s already starting to happen.  As the article also notes, refineries are becoming idle, the pipeline system will soon grind to a halt and storage tanks daily are being filled to the brim. As we know, the global airline industry is grounded, countless businesses and factories are shuttered and billions of people, having been forced to stay home, are no longer driving across the country.

Despite governments pouring aid packages into the economy, personal and corporate bankruptcies are already expected to significantly increase should the pandemic last several more months. We are a consumer-driven economy and consumer consumption is expected to remain low for months to come, especially with the extremely high levels of predicted unemployment and the average family having to struggle just to make ends meet.

We can expect that in the near future things will get worst than better anytime soon. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, now estimates that the pandemic could cause between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in the U.S.  As of today in Canada, there are over 3,620 confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases and just over 60 fatalities. Health authorities believe that both countries have yet to reach their pandemic peak, expected in the next few weeks.  Most governments have extended the mandated isolation periods and travel restrictions into and beyond this April.  Not knowing how long exactly that these measures will be in place makes it all the more difficult to make economic predictions.  All we know for sure is that economic growth will most likely be negative for the coming year and the human toll will continue to be great.  All one can do is take care, be safe and self-isolate wherever and whenever possible.  Working together as communities and families, we can all get through this.

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Mar 24

There Are Numerous Signs That People Have Yet to Believe In Seriousness of COVID-19 Outbreaks

by bcurry

The news today is not good in that the COVID-19 outbreaks are continuing to grow exponentially. Yet, a number of activities and behaviours in the U.S. and Canada indicate that many people are not taking this pandemic seriously. For example:

  • A recent survey in Canada about the outbreak indicated that 37 percent of men are either a little or not at all worried about it, compared to 25 percent of women. Only 20 percent of men aged 18 to 29 years old are very worried about the virus.
  • This past weekend, people of all ages could be seen in parks strolling in large groups, sunning on beaches, sipping beverages together, etc., etc. This despite multiple warnings from health authorities to “socially distance” from each other for up to 2 metres apart (6 feet for Americans).
  • Among essential businesses not closing in Ontario are liquor and beer stores. Go figure!
  • Given a multitude of concerns expressed by IOCs around the globe, Japan has finally been forced after much pressure to postpone the summer Olympics until 2021. Meanwhile, the Olympic flame sits idly by in Tokyo.
  • The American President stated publicly that two old anti-malaria medications are being considered as potential treatments for the virus and he considers them “game changer.” This despite the fact that his top infectious diseases advisor says that the evidence is flimsy and may even be dangerous and they are not without serious side effects.
  • Instead of declaring that the outbreak could take months to get under control, President Trump continues to express his policies in terms of weeks, preferring to unrealistically bank on reassessments at the end of March 2020. He appears to be more concerned about the stock markets.
  • A lot of scams are surfacing which rely on taking advantage of the fears of people, including some that market themselves as cures or treatments for the coronavirus.
  • Some returnees to Canada and the S. are not going into a 14-day self-isolation period upon their return as per the requirements of each national government.
  • The Canadian Prime Minister, himself in self-imposed isolation, has had to once again strongly reiterate to Canadians that, unless absolutely essential, they should “go home, and stay home.”

These are just a few of the examples of how people and governments are responding to the COVID-19 emergency. I hope that we can do much better in the coming weeks and months!  For the time being, like a lot of citizens, I am now practicing “social distancing” from home while greatly appreciating the work of those who are essential workers caring for us, our loved ones and our neighbours.

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Mar 23

Pandemic Has Serious Implications For The Mental Health Of Children

by bcurry

The schools have been shut down indefinitely. In place, where possible, children have been asked to participate in e-learning during these uncertain times.  Recreation facilities, including arenas, pools and playing fields, have been closed.  Many privately-funded extracurricular activities have been suspended.  Children, other than siblings, have been placed into social isolation and are unable to communicate with their friends and relatives except through social media.  Some of their parents have been laid off and/or forced to socially isolate from home.

Nothing of this magnitude and duration has ever happened in recent times, certainly not in my lifetime. While adults have developed certain coping mechanisms, children can still see and hear the resulting stress in our eyes and voices.  What is particularly difficult is the fact that the adults can offer no clear explanations or time lines for this outbreak.  Everyday we are bombarded with ongoing updates and disturbing news about the spread of this apparently unstoppable virus and the reactions of the authorities.  This is enough to cause serious anxiety among adults, never mind the children.

When all is said and done, the real casualties of the pandemic will be the mental health of children. To understand what happened, many children will ultimately require not only counselling, but treatment to deal with the traumatic outcomes of the war on COVID-19.  Interim measures such as social distancing are fine for now, but societies will have to implement longer-term help for their recovery and a return to some semblance of normality.  In the interim, what we as adults must do is to not only protect their physical health, but also take precautions regarding their mental health.  Give them the information that they need about the pandemic and avoid all the misinformation that exists out there.  Try to not candy coat the situation, but try not to overly alarm them.  Clearly, your reassurance and love is what they so terribly need right now and in the near future.  After all, as the old adage goes, the future is in our children.

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Mar 18

The COVID-19 Global Pandemic Was Predictable Given Past Experiences

by bcurry

Years ago I read a book published in 2006 by Andrew Nikiforuk entitled “Pandemonium”. What is fascinating was that the author clearly and correctly outlined all of the factors which would lead to a future pandemic.  So here we are in 2020, which now has what must be the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu of 1918-19.  He laid out the three primary conditions needed to foster a pandemic.  These were: “a just-in-time global economy, unprecedented urban crowding, and unparalleled human mobility.”  He noted that reports by several sources, including the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, concluded that a severe pandemic with a 2.5 percent death rate would “shock the economy” and turn the health-care system completely “upside down.”

Indeed, this is exactly what is happening world-wide. In both the U.S. and Canada, the health-care systems were already at full capacity — and even at over-capacity — because of the usual seasonal influenza outbreaks. The almost total shutdown of the Chinese economy has thrown a huge wrench into normal supply chains and seriously lowered China’s growth rate as the second largest economy in the world. The stock markets are tumbling and growing recession speculation is dominating financial news.  While China may appear to be slowly recovering from its outbreak because of its draconian measures, the rest of Asia, North America and Europe are now in the process of just starting to come to grips with the resulting economic and health impacts.

What’s most worrisome is the fact that we were so caught off guard by the pandemic’s emergence, despite our earlier experiences with avian flu and SARs. There are already shortages of testing kits, personal protective equipment and ventilators needed by health-care workers to do their jobs.  For now, the authorities’ strategy is primarily aimed at simply slowing down the spread of the virus by enforcing the shutdown of businesses, restricting or eliminating travel from other countries, and encouraging “social distancing” by people at large.  The hope is that such measures will limit exposure to the virus and allow the health-care system to cope with the more seriously infected patients.

What is particularly disappointing is the daily news coming out of the U.S.  There you have an administration that started out by understating the impact of the novel coronavirus and a President who even talked about it as a “hoax”.  For a country that is supposed to be an example and leader to the rest of the world, the U.S. has done anything but inspire confidence in its ability to tackle such a formidable foe. The result could be catastrophic for many Americans and for the rest of the world.  Simply calling the impact of the outbreak a “national emergency” may unfortunately be too little and too late for many Americans already in dire straits.

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Mar 14

From SARS to COVID-19, What Have We Learned?

by bcurry

Having lived through the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in the early 2000s, I can safely say that we have learned about a good number of notable and useful factors which led to the current coronavirus global pandemic called COVID-19. Scientists had learned a great deal from the epidemic of SARS that began in November 2002 and ended in June 2003. Health researchers and authorities eventually came up with very sensitive diagnostic tests and new treatments to fight any further SARS outbreak, and the knowledge gained helped them find and treat previously undiagnosed human diseases caused by other coronaviruses.

We also learned that such viruses can quickly be transmitted across the globe because of international travel and trade. Our ability to cope with the impact of new viruses in our health care systems will be even more challenged by COVID-19 than was the case with SARS.  The fact that the new virus is so easily transmitted, makes its containment even more difficult.  For this reason, makeshift hospitals and quarantine centres will be needed to shore up a health system that has virtually no give. The most vulnerable, seniors and those with underlying health issues, will have to be particularly protected.  This time, a much broader community approach will have to taken in comparison to SARS which primarily hit frontline hospital and emergency services staff in North America. People are being asked to “socially distance” themselves and to self-isolate in the event that they become symptomatic or have been exposed to the virus.  Numerous countries, including Canada and the U.S., have enacted international travel restrictions and mass closures of sporting, entertainment, and other major events to limit the potential exposure to the virus. Unlike SARS, the economic impact of such measures will be severe and will lead to a global recession.

Governments are hoping that by closing down much of social and business activity, they will be able to mitigate the impact on the health system and provide more needed time for researchers to develop a vaccine and treatment for COVID-19. However, as we now know, doctors finally beat the deadly SARS, but it did not happen overnight.  Indeed, it took three years from the SARS outbreak for scientists to develop a simple therapy that promised to decrease the extraordinarily high death rate from the disease. At this time, no one really knows how long we will have to continue the shutdown of social and business activities in the battle against COVID-19.  On the ground, there are already greater concerns around supplies of gowns, gloves, masks, oxygen, drugs, ventilators, and laboratory capacity for virus testing than was in the case of SARS.

Since the outbreaks of COVID-19 are much more wide-spread than SARS, a greater national and global approach is required. Mitigation efforts must be more community based involving the cooperation of each and everyone of us.  By implementing social distancing and good hygiene practices, there is a good likelihood that Americans and Canadians can reduce the impact on our health care systems and the overall number of COVID-19 related fatalities.

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Mar 9

As if in a “war”, we must prepare to battle COVID-19

by bcurry

With an estimated 100,000 people confirmed to have COVID-19 in a 100 countries, including over 500 cases in three dozen U.S. states, it’s time that countries begin to tackle the continuing spread of the virus as if it were a war. All essential resources at the federal, state, provincial and local levels must be diverted to preparing for the worst scenario.  Our policies need to shift from containment of an outbreak to “mitigation,” which means acknowledging that the tried-and-true public health measures of isolating the sick and quarantining their contacts are no longer enough. The virus is quickly spreading.  So steps must be taken to minimize deaths from the disease and to slow its spread so that hospitals are not overwhelmed.  Furthermore, priorities must be directed to protecting the most vulnerable, especially the elderly with underlying health conditions.

The first and foremost policy is to ensure that good and reliable information about the virus and prevention is made continuously to the public. Avenues of misinformation must be dealt with in order to avoid a panic and the hoarding of medical supplies by persons at less risk to the health impact of the virus.  Front line medical and other emergency personnel must be provided with the proper equipment and logistical support to deal with outbreaks.  Facilities must be set up to deal with extensive testing for COVID-19 and mandatory self-quarantine in homes or designated facilities must be enforced.

As in the cases of quarantining persons on military bases coming from cruise ships or hot spots who may have been exposed to the virus, the military may need to be activated to assist in enforcing policies and practices. Hot spots will have to be treated as if they were war zones.  No one is suggesting at this time that we shut down complete cities as was done in China, but various options will have to be considered to mitigate any larger local outbreaks. Hopefully, given timely and accurate information by the authorities, every citizen will do their share as part of an overall mitigation strategy.

COVID-19 has been in the U.S. and Canada for some time, and the likelihood of its spreading is certain. Much of the news lately has tended to concentrate on the global and domestic economic impacts.  However, the time has come to lay out coordinated and enhanced national strategies to combat this increasing threat to the public’s health at large, and the most vulnerable persons in particular.  Every available resource that countries have must be used to buy more time for the development of a vaccine and for the research to be done for treatments. Comforting words no longer suffice.  What one needs now is deliberate and speedy action.  After all, we are at war.

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Mar 6

International Women’s Day and Wage Inequities Between Women and Men

by bcurry

March 8th is International Women’s Day which is observed annually around the globe. The Day is a powerful reminder to keep working hard on eliminating gender-based stereotypes while celebrating women’s achievements, creativity and strength.  It is also a day to recognize the fact that a lot more work is needed to be done to reduce and even eliminate inequities in employment wages and benefits received by women in comparison to men for work of equal value.

For years now Canadian working women have reported earning almost a quarter less than male counterparts despite strides by women attaining education and acceptance in higher-paying professions. A new pay equity study this past year by Leger Research shows that women took home an average pre-tax salary of $51,352 in 2019 compared with $67,704 for men — a 24 percent gap.  In addition, the study also found that men received more than twice the additional compensation of bonuses or profit sharing than women.  It should be noted that, according to a survey by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Canada’s gender wage gap in 2018 ranked 5th largest among 29 countries.  The OECD found that the United States, South Korea, Japan, and Israel had the highest disparities, while Belgium, Greece and Costa Rica the lowest.

The federal government and six Canadian provinces — Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Ontario and Quebec — have enacted pay equity legislation in an attempt to reduce pay inequities between men and women. Needless-to-say, Leger Research also found that traditional job identities persist with women outnumbering men by about four times in health care, while men are three times more prevalent in higher-paying technology/IT, finance and manufacturing jobs.  In addition, women are still overrepresented in part-time work and lower paying service jobs.  However, even where qualified women are working alongside men in the same profession, there are still discrepancies in pay levels and benefits, especially when it came to employers’ parental and child care leave provisions.

On March 8th, it is incumbent upon governments and businesses to recognize the on-going pay inequities faced by women in both Canada and the U.S.  As a society, we need to encourage and require employers to ensure that women are fairly rewarded for their work and societal contributions.  It is just the right thing to do, especially since our changing information economy will have a greater need for the participation of more highly educated and talented women and men.

Canada Minimum Wages Women's Issues

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