FROLITICKS

Satirical commentary on Canadian and American current political issues

Feb 28

Canada is very likely heading into a major recession, especially in light of COVID-19

by bcurry

Canada’s growth slows to its weakest pace in almost four years as economic woes bite. Statistics Canada has now revised the third quarter annualized growth down to 1.1 per cent from an initial 1.3 per cent. In addition to recent rail and pipeline shutdowns and the slowdown in oil and gas and mining sectors, the Canadian economy is going to have to brace for the effects of COVID-19.  For example, Chinese tourists to Canada accounted for 7.3 per cent of our tourism receipts. Exports of iron, copper, lobsters and lumber are also at risk due to weaker demand from China. No one knows for sure how long the COVID-19 outbreaks will last and how severe it will be in North America. Given China’s current COVID-19 closures, global supply chains are being seriously impacted here and in Europe. Like the SARS outbreaks in 2003, some experts expect that COVID-19 could last anywhere from seven to eight more months.

The immediate economic impact this week has been on the stock markets with the Canadian TSX and the U.S. Dow losing its greatest amounts in one week since the Great Recession of 2008. With trillions of dollars loss in one week, nothing like this has been seen before and we are no longer simply talking about the expected stock market correction in Canada and in the U.S.

Over the past year, I have been warning of a possible recession because the very weak underlying factors around manufacturing and consumer spending. Instead, corporations have been using profits to pay shareholders and buy back company shares, instead of reinvesting in capital, R & D and labour.  Now, multinational enterprises like Apple, Hyundai and Samsung are seeing their Chinese supply chains shut down resulting in expected reduced future earnings.

The question for North American industries is what will happen should the COVID-19 virus spread to manufacturing plants and the service industries for example. COVID-19 is here and all one can do is to prepare for any possible pandemic.  Remember that the only way to contain the virus is through quarantine and isolating affecting individuals.  Should one employee test positive, an entire establishment may have to be closed and employees would be required to go into self-quarantine.  No one wants to exaggerate the threats, but one has to realize that the economic situation in Canada is already weak. COVID-19 could be the one major event to trigger a major recession in the coming months. Both Canadians and Americans need to be prepared for such an outcome.

Canada COVID-19 Global Economy Trade with China

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Feb 22

Use of Non-Violent Civil Disobedience by Anti-Pipeline Protesters

by bcurry

Throughout modern history we have seen examples of non-violent civil disobedience in the form of staged sit-ins, marches, blockades, hunger strikes and other tactics used to raise awareness about issues that are taking place in society. Among the best known examples are the movements led by people such as India’s Mahatma Gandhi, South Africa’s anti-apartheid leader Nelson Mandela and of course Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.  One of the main principles of civil disobedience is to maintain respect for the rule of law even while disobeying a specific law considered to be unjust.  In addition, those demonstrating peaceful civil disobedience were willing to go to jail without resisting arrest by the authorities.

In the last two weeks in Canada, one has seen protests by certain indigenous groups in support of members of the Wet’suwet’en nation opposed to the construction of the Coastal GasLink pipeline being built through their territory in British Columbia. Protesters attempted to illegally block the construction of the Coastal GasLink pipeline, forcing the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) to enforce a court injunction against the blockade.  However, within the

Wet’suwet’en nation there are major divisions between elected Band leaders who support the project in terms of its economic benefits and some hereditary chiefs who oppose the project on the basis of protecting traditional lands.

The hereditary chiefs wanted the RCMP to leave their lands, which they are prepared to do. In support of the hereditary chiefs, protesters from various native groups blocked rail lines across the country, bringing passenger rail service and rail freight traffic to a halt during the past two weeks of blockades.  Freight rail service is said to have fallen by 18%, and hundreds of rail employees have been temporarily laid off.  Court injunctions were obtained against the blockades, but the authorities had as yet to move in to dismantle the barricades.  What is also interesting is that non-native anti-pipeline groups have taken the opportunity to join in these civil disobedience activities to promote their own causes.

Now that the federal government has exhausted consultations with those representing the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs, there is a clear indication that the economy is being hurt by the rail shutdown. The time has come for the authorities to move in and dismantle the illegal blockades, hopefully in a non-violent manner.  Since part of civil disobedience is the real possibility of being arrested and jailed, the protesters — both native and non-native — have to be willing to end up in jail.  Violent resistance is not among the principles governing the use of civil disobedience.  It is now up to the protesters to confirm their adherence to those principles and either dismantle the blockades or be arrested.  Not doing so will only hurt their stated causes and loose any public support and possibly even the support of many native peoples.  The federal government has made it clear that it remains willing to continue its reconciliation policies and initiatives with indigenous peoples.  The protesters, whether you choose to agree or disagree, have made their point.  Further hurting people across the country is not the way to go!

Canada Native Issues

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Feb 14

Treating Tweets By Donald Trump As Gospel And The Impact on Governance

by bcurry

At no time in American Presidential history has technology created serious concerns regarding the separation of powers and the obstruction of justice. When the American President tweets out something, his administration, his followers and the general public treat it as gospel.  Gone are the normal press conferences of the past, only to be replaced instead by tweets and short media scrums.  The problem is over how to draw a line between the ad hoc public declarations of the President and perceived interference in the justice system.  Remember, the justice system is expected to be an independent part of governance and rightly so.  Besides Congress and the Executive, the justice system through its various branches is designed to ensure independence and impartiality in its decision making processes and in enforcement of the law.

However, Attorney General William Barr has now stated that President Trump’s criticisms of the handling of his friend Roger Stone’s sentencing has undermined the legal system, and he is not able to do his important job. Although there may be no direct evidence of interference by Trump, his tweeted assertions that the Justice Department’s Prosecutors’ push for a sentence of up to nine years for Stone’s convictions was too harsh could only be perceived as an attempt to influence the Attorney General.  Subsequently, the AG decided to overrule his own prosecutors and withdraw the sentencing recommendation, giving the appearance of caving in to Presidential pressure.  Instead, the AG’s office suggested that the prosecutors instead lay out factors for Judge Amy Berman Jackson to consider in sentencing Mr. Stone but defer to her on the length of the final sentence. With this outcome, the four prosecutors resigned from the case in protest, with one actually leaving the Justice Department.

As the New York Times notes, speaking up could have put Mr. Barr at risk of losing the backing of the President, but remaining silent would have permitted Trump to continue attacking law enforcement and all but invited open revolt among the some 115,000 employees of the Justice Department. Previously, the President had made it difficult for Mr. Barr to maintain the appearance of independence, threatening the AG’s credibility by repeatedly calling for federal investigations of Trump’s perceived enemies.  Trump had suggested to the president of Ukraine that he work with Mr. Barr and the President’s personal lawyer Rudolph W. Giuliani to investigate for personal political benefit some of Mr. Trump’s political opponents: i.e. Joe Biden and his son. This action of course formed the whole basis for the impeachment hearings and trial against Trump in Congress.

Even more serious, is the fact that public statements by any President, in whatever format, are considered as the administration’s official position. Despite the fact that the President’s staff often is forced to follow up with a further explanation of just what the President’s assertion was, Trump’s initial tweet will always be taken by his followers as gospel.  This may play well with Trump’s base of support, but will often undermine the credibility and sanctity of the three separate legs of governance and democracy.  Even the Republicans in Congress are now beginning to realize that the powers of the President have to be restrained as intended under the Constitution, given the importance of the intended checks and balances provided by the three arms of government.

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Feb 8

Trump Administration’s “Industrial Militarism” Highlighted In Attack on China’s Huawei

by bcurry

Nowhere is it more clearly demonstrated that President Trump is using industrial clout to carry out “industrial militarism” than in his attack on Huawei to block the tech giant’s global 5G expansion. 5G stands for fifth-generation networks which are essentially a faster and more reliable version of wireless connectivity and mark a massive leap forward in such wireless technology.  Numerous industrialized countries are moving to build a 5G network, such as Canada whose 5G network could be in place around 2020. Huawei is the largest global company in 5G development and installation and is involved in 140-plus countries around the world. In Canada, companies such as Telus and BCE, or Bell Canada, are partnering to build 5G technology along with Huawei. Their Canadian rival, Rogers, is working alongside Swedish telecom Ericsson— a main Huawei rival. As a result, Ottawa has come under increasing pressure from the U.S. to block Huawei from developing its 5G technology in Canada, as critics warn it could present a national security risk.

Recently, U.S. Attorney General William Barr made the case for an all-out economic war on China’s Huawei in order to block the tech giant’s global 5G expansion. He even called on America’s “allies” to join what amounts not only an international strategic offensive against Huawei but also against China itself. He further suggested that the U.S. and its allies, including Canada and Britain, align their financial and technological forces to support European firms, Nokia and Ericsson, Huawei’s major 5G competitors. By getting governments to become involved in a business sector, such as the telecom sector, this position would contradict the traditional American principle of supporting free-market enterprise.  It would be blatantly perceived as causing a geo-strategic economic confrontation with China, similar to what occurred during the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.

So far, a number of countries, including Canada and Britain, have rejected the idea of participating in any U.S. takeover of Nokia and/or Ericsson. Interestingly, although use of Huawei equipment has been banned in the U.S. since 2012 over fears it’s a security risk, some two dozen U.S. telecom companies have used Huawei’s equipment to provide services in remote regions. In Canada, a number of communities in provinces such as British Columbia and Saskatchewan, are using Huawei equipment to service non-core 4G in rural regions in particular. So far, there is no evidence that China has used network equipment for cyber-espionage.

As critics of “industrial militarism” argue, is it really up to Americans to fight the People’s Republic of China and its authoritarian regime — with its state-run enterprises and dirigiste economic policies — by adopting some of the same statist interventions? As one expert rightly noted, an extended trade war between the U.S. and China and threats by Trump to ban certain Chinese tech firms from the American supply chain, could further divide the global tech scene. Left unchanged, that could result in a world where technological progress among countries is far less uniform, cost-effective and integrated.  In Canada, competition in the telecom sector is alive and well. Huawei, Swedish telecom Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung and others are all being allowed to compete freely in pursuit of the lucrative market.  This is expected to greatly improve telecom services to Canadian consumers, especially in rural and remote regions.

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Feb 4

Trump’s Latest Visa Restrictions Will Have A Negative Impact On Canadian Immigration

by bcurry

Well, here we go again! The Trump administration has just introduced restrictions on immigration to include six more countries, including Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation. You may remember that President Trump first introduced a travel ban in 2017, closing U.S. borders to citizens from seven countries, most of them with Muslim majorities. He is now targeting Nigeria, Sudan and Eritrea, already among the largest sources of refugee claims lodged by people crossing irregularly into Canada from the U.S.  The 2017 decision also signalled the end of the American program giving Haitians a reprieve from deportation.  That move prompted thousands of Haitians to seek asylum in Canada, with sometimes hundreds crossing at unmarked border points in a single day.

According to the most recent data available from Canadian authorities, Nigeria is currently the largest source country for border crossers, making up 14,621 of the 50,635 claims lodged between February 2017 and September 2019. The bizarre thing is that many of those crossing irregularly from the States are applying for refugee status in Canada, often as a result of lapsing temporary visas in the U.S.  There is little doubt that the latest visa restrictions are part of Trump’s attempt to do his level best to ensure that more refugees stay out of the U.S.  However, the policy has prompted thousands from these countries to seek asylum in Canada. Imagine, seeking asylum from government policies in the U.S.

Unfortunately, Canada shares one of the world’s longest borders with another country. The situation in the U.S. means that Canada has to devote more resources to policing its borders. In addition, the onus is now on Canada to physically accommodate and financially assist the thousands of new asylum seekers while their request for refugee status is reviewed and adjudicated by the Immigration and Refugee Board. Needless-to-say, the process is costly and time consuming, sometimes lasting months and even years.  For example, in 2017 according to the Immigration and Refugee Board, over 8,000 Haitians sought asylum in Canada. In 2018, that number was only about 1,500.

Homeland Security argues that the past and new restrictive visa measures were the result of failures by countries to meet U.S. security and information-sharing standards. Perhaps, what the Americans should be doing is to discuss with those countries ways and means to meeting such requirements.  Instead, the U.S. appears quite content to carry out exclusive policies when it comes to immigration and travel, most often targeting countries that they simply don’t like for one reason or another. Meanwhile, Canada, with its laws and its Refugee and Humanitarian Resettlement Program for refugees seeking protection from outside of Canada, has to deal with the overflow of desperate individuals and families fleeing the Trump Administration’s inhumane and extremist policies. Go figure!

Canada Immigration Immigration Policies U.S. Canada Border US

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